000 AGXX40 KNHC 070650 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 NM W OF BERMUDA MAINTAINING A RIDGE TO W-SW ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING E TO SE FLOW ACROSS GULF REGION...EXCEPT SLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NW GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT...CONTINUE BLOWING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS AND ACROSS THE SE/S MIDDLE GULF S OF 25N. THIS RIDGE WILL REORGANIZING AND WEAKEN OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY/SUN AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN MINOR FLUCTUATIONS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KT) EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE W GULF. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-8 FT OVER THE W/NW WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS SIGNIFICANT IN THIS WIND REGIME...AND NEAR THE STRAITS IN WIND GENERATED WAVES. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NW WATERS BY WED...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLY SPREAD IN THE NWP GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. CARIBBEAN... A SHEAR LINE REMAINS DEFINED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM GUADELOUPE TO THE A-B-C ISLANDS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT NE TO E WINDS NW OF THE SHEAR LINE...AND 10-15 KT SE OF THE LINE. HI-RES QSCAT PASS AROUND 2300 Z LIKELY VERIFIES THE GALE WARNING IN PLACE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS SEVERAL 35 KT WIND VECTORS ARE NOTED IN THE PASS. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR GALE FORCE BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBS NEAR THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNWIND OF THE GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS STRONG FLOW IS PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF HIGH SEAS OF 9-15 FT INTO THE SW CARIB...AND WILL BUILD A FEW MORE FT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO BECOME CUT OFF JUST N AND E OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES NEAR 27N58W. THE SFC LOW IS LOCATED A COUPLE NM TO THE NE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 22N55W TO 17N62W. UNFORTUNATELY... SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SO BUT BASED ON THE SFC PATTERN AND SURROUNDING DATA...STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING TO THE W OF THE SFC LOW S OF 31N AND OPC HAS A STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NW QUAD N OF 31N. WHILE THESE WARNINGS ARE LOCATED N AND E OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES...N TO NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING W OF THE FRONT OVER THE TROP N ATLC AND OVER S AND E PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A CYCLONIC LOOP OF THE LOW BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IT NE ON MON. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN NE SWELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS THE ZONES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD THE N BAHAMAS AND LOW PRES EXITS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.