000 AGXX40 KNHC 261715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1215 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLC AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS IS PRODUCING SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN AND MIDDLE GULF WATERS AND E TO SE FLOW OVER THE E WATERS. MAX SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT MORNING AND SWEEP QUICKLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BY SUN EVENING. NLY 20-30 KT FLOW IS ADVERTISED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE SW GULF...WHERE FETCH IS GREATEST. AM CONSIDERING PUTTING UP A GALE FOR THE FAVORED REGION NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AS TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS TYPICAL CAUSE WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. CARIBBEAN... NE WINDS REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STALLED FRONT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NE-E WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE TYPICALLY ENHANCED REGION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AS THE STALLED FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRI...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OTHERWISE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AND MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BY MON. NLY 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ATLANTIC... A FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC FROM 25N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1032 UTC...WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NW ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED HERE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN DECIDEDLY MORE AMPLIFIED SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH FL SAT NIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLC...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN UKMET AND NOGAPS AND OUR FORECAST REMAINS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO WHICH MOVES THE FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 22N78W SUN EVENING...AND FROM 31N65W TO 20N72W MON EVENING. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.