000 AGXX40 KNHC 260726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE NW GULF UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT. CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN SOMEWHAT IN THE FORECAST DETAILS WITH THE MODELS AGREEING ON AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN BY CARRYING ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MODELS INTENSIFY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE AS IT PASSES NE OF BERMUDA. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SAT AS WELL AS WITH THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE GFS THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN... THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2324 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WEDGED BETWEEN THE LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE WINDWARD CHANNEL AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NE TO SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE ANCHOR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT RANGE BY FRI AFTERNOON. S OF 17N...TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY THE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SEEING WINDS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONDITIONS HERE UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL TURN DECIDEDLY MORE NORTHERLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE WINDWARD CHANNEL BY MON AFTERNOON. ATLC... THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORCING THE LONG-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NW EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC S OF 26N IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT E OF 65W. ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2322 UTC...WINDS HAVE BUILT TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSES TO THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED HERE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN DECIDEDLY MORE AMPLIFIED...CARRYING ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH FL SAT NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MODELS INTENSIFY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE AS IT PASSES NE OF BERMUDA. AS THE FRONT MOVED INTO THE ATLC...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE GFS LIES BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERN NOGAPS AND MORE WESTERN/NEAR-SHORE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MON. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKING LIKE A COMPROMISE...THINK ITS POSITION IS GOOD HERE...BUT THINK IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY MON NIGHT AS THE GFS DEVELOPS A 998 MB LOW HERE AT THAT TIME WHILE THE UKMET IS 1005 MB AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH IS WRAPPED FARTHER N AND BEEN OFFSHORE LONGER BY THIS TIME...IS 1001 MB. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER/LESS WINDY GFS SOLUTION SEEMS BEST IN THE SW N ATLC SUN/MON. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.