000
AGXX40 KNHC 241645
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORCING THE LONG-WAVE 
TROUGHS MOVING OFFSHORE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NW EDGE 
OF THE RIDGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS 
AROUND 20 KT IN THE NW GULF FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE 
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED OVER THIS 
TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS WANES BY THU/FRI 
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE 
ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CARRYING THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT INTO THE NW GULF ON SAT EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN...
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS MIGRATING EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY 
THROUGH THE SW N ATLC INTO CENTRAL CUBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA IS WEAKENING. IN 
ADDITION...THE COLOMBIAN LOW HAS WEAKENED TO 1010 MB THIS 
AFTERNOON. ASCAT AND QSCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS HAD SUBSIDED 
TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OR LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S 
OF 18N E OF 80W. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH 
CENTRAL CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFF THE EAST COAST TUE-THU. 
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT EDGES EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND WINDS 
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH GENERALLY TO AROUND 15 KT E OF 80W 
WED-SAT.  

ATLC...
THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORCING THE LONG-WAVE 
TROUGHS MOVING OFFSHORE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NW EDGE 
OF THE RIDGE. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT S OF 26N CURRENTLY MOVING 
THROUGH THE SW N ATLC IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT E OF 65W.  
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT WITH 
THIS FRONT OVER FORECAST WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE 
MUCH OF ITS PUNCH OVER FORECAST WATERS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND 
IS FORCED N OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH 
WILL EAT INTO THE SURFACE RIDGING A BIT MORE THAN ITS 
PREDECESSOR...ALLOWING TRADES TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLC S OF 20N TUE-THU. PRESENTLY TRADES 
ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA S OF 
20N.


ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER FORMOSA. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.