000 AGXX40 KNHC 211945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF ARE SHOWING SE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE SRN WATERS OF THE NW GULF AND E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE WATERS E OF 90W. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PASSED 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SE 20-25 KT WINDS OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE SW GULF. WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF ARE BEGINNING TO RESPONSE TO NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER E CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT 5-8 FT IN THE SW ZONE AND 1-2 FT NE PART. A RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES FURTHER EWD PROGRESS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF THE MIDWEST SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF ...WITH ITS WRN PORTION SURGING SWD THROUGH THE SW GULF BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. INITIAL RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT...AND ARE SHOWING MORE OF A CONSENSUS THAT STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIVE FAR S ENOUGH OVER NE TEXAS TO BRING STRONG N WINDS WELL S INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. ALSO...LATEST MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE NOW SHOWS 30 KT N WINDS IN THE SW GULF SUN...AND IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE NW GULF WITH A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH OVER DEEP SRN TEXAS ON SUN. THIS ALL POINTS TO A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A GALE EVENT FOR THE SW GULF...SO WILL HEADLINE THIS EVENT IN THIS PACKAGE FOR THE SW GULF ZONE (Z082) FOR THE SUN PERIOD WITH MENTION OF WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE NW ZONE S OF 27N. WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE N-NE ABOUT 20-30 KT W OF 90W...AND NE NEAR 20 KT E OF 90W WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 14 FT IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND TO 10 FT IN THE NW GULF. SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS E SIMILAR JUST RECENT EPISODES. SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON WED AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS AND ATTENDANT HIGH CENTERS SLIDING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA INTERACTS WITH THE ATLC HIGH PRES TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THOSE WATERS. THE GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SUN EVENING. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT THROUGHOUT THIS SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN... WITH MAX SEA HEIGHT UP TO 14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COUPLE OF WEAKENING FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...BUT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE STRONG RIDGING THAT BUILDS SE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THROUGH AND NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. TRADES MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH SOME OVER THE N/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA MON AND TUE...BUT INCREASE SOME AGAIN LATE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING LATE THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO THE HIGH BUILDING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 27N65W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS WHERE IT WASHES OUT. THE PRES GRADIENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW N OF THE AREA HAS PULLED SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE AREA TO INHIBIT GALE CONDITIONS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 20/1000 QUIKSCAT PASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAX SEA HEIGHTS DOWN TO 9 FT AS REPORTED BY BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWS SEAS IN A SUBSIDING TREND THROUGH SUN...UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THESE TRADES WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 13 FT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON...THEN SUBSIDE TO 12 FT TUE AND TO 9-10 FT BY LATE WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON SUN THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BEHIND THIS FRONT BY LATE MON...AND UP 10 FT WED AND THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SETTING UP A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO 27N. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 95W...GMZ080. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.