000 AGXX40 KNHC 201716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1215 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE GULF WITH ITS TAIL END REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO ALONG THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT CONTINUES DISSIPATING AS THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO PULL WELL NE OF THE AREA. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W...AND N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE E OF 90W AS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC MORNING...AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY BUOY REPORTS. AS THE FRONT PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY SLIDE E ALONG OR JUST N OF 30N THROUGH SUN. AS A RESULT...INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GULF. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE GULF WILL COME ON SUNDAY...AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT...IT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W GULF WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN A GALE EVENT IS VERY LOW ON PER LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH ALMOST ZERO POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALE FORCE WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY GALE THREAT IS ALSO LOWERED BY THE NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NE TEXAS... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME THAT SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND FAVORING A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE EXPECTED GALE HAS CORRESPONDINGLY BEEN DROPPED. WITH THAT SAID ...STILL EXPECT NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS WITH 20 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST NEAR THE MEXICO COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...RISING TO 10 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE SUN AND EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE RIDGES AND SURFACE HIGHS SLIDING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA INTERACTS WITH THE ATLC HIGH PRES TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THOSE WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THIS REGION...EXCEPT UP TO 14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COUPLE OF WEAKENING FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ONE AT PRESENT...AND ANOTHER EARLY MON...WITH BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO N TO NE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. TRADES MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH SOME OVER THE N/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA MON AND TUE...BUT INCREASE SOME AGAIN LATE TUE INTO WED DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE FAR SW ATLC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM W CUBA TO NEAR BERMUDA. THE PRES GRADIENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW N OF THE AREA HAS PULLED SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE AREA TO INHIBIT GALE CONDITIONS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 20/1000 QUIKSCAT PASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING FROM S TO N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAX SEA HEIGHTS DOWN TO 12 FT AS REPORTED BY BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWS SEAS IN A SUBSIDING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THESE TRADES WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 13 FT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON...THEN SUBSIDE TO 12 FT TUE AND TO 9-10 FT BY LATE WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MID-DAY... THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BEHIND THIS FRONT BY LATE MON...AND UP 10 FT BY WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SETTING UP A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO NE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO 27N. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COHEN/AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.