000 AGXX40 KNHC 191854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST THU FEB 19 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WHILE SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT N OF THE FRONT BASED ON BUOY OBS...BUT DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE...WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN IS FUNNELING THE DENSER AIR INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOT PARTICULARLY AMPLIFIED...SO THE CONCERN FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT IS NEAR ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH FRI MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT OVER THE W GULF BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE GULF. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE GULF WILL COME ON SUNDAY...AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AND STRONGER FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF EARLY SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FRONT...IT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W GULF WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH. GALES ARE STILL A CONCERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF DUE TO THE NEARBY TERRAIN VARIATIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES MARGINAL GALES BECOMING ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE MEXICO COAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...WITHOUT ANY PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY THE NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NE TEXAS... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME THAT SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND FAVORING A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS WITH 20 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST NEAR THE MEXICO COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN...RISING TO 11 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE SUN AND EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE RIDGES AND SURFACE HIGHS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT IN THIS REGION...EXCEPT UP TO 14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COUPLE OF WEAKENING FRONTS WILL SLIDE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI AND EARLY MON...WITH BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO THE N NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT AN OVERALL RELAXATION OF THE TRADE WINDS BY MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND FRONT. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM N OF MELBOURNE INTO THE SW N ATLC. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS E OF THE FRONT...WITH GALES REPORTED BASED ON RECENT SHIP OBS N OF 28N. THE REGION OF GALES WILL BE PULLED NE OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI. LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO ENTER THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THESE TRADES WILL BUILD UP TO 14 FT IN SOME AREAS BY MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHWARD STORM TRACK WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT BEHIND THIS FRONT BY LATE MON. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COHEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.