000 AGXX40 KNHC 190723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY FRI THEN DISSIPATE LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI INTO SAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT DUE TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST INTO SUN MORNING. ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GALES AT THIS TIME...THE STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND THE COLD HIGH PRES PUSHING INTO THE GULF BEHIND THIS FRONT SUGGEST A LIMITED GALE SCENARIO. THE NE TO E FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN... HIGH PRES N OF PUERTO RICO IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LATE YESTERDAY SHOWED NEAR 30 KT NEAR COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI...THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATER FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK SLIGHTLY FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC BY EARLY SAT. THIS HIGH PRES MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALLOWING THE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA TO BE SLIGHTLY BIGGER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR BRIEF GALE CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WELL. OTHERWISE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE WIND REGIME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG PERIOD SWELL UP TO 9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH MAINLY THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... BUOY AND 02Z ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL STALLING FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE FRI. GALES PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH MAINLY N OF 23N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO N OF BERMUDA FRI INTO SAT...MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 23N INTO SAT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT...REACHING A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUN...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.