000 AGXX40 KNHC 180658 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE WARM FLOW PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEAS FOG OVER THE NW GULF...AND SHORT WAVE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS OF BANKS OF FOG ADVECTING TOWARD THE COAST. OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT AND DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW GULF BY SAT NIGHT. 00Z GFS MODEL IS HINTING OF GALE FORCE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT. WILL INCREASE WINDS IN FORECAST A BIT BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON GALES AND WAIT FOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS. CARIBBEAN... NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE INCREASING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC N OF THE BASIN...BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH PUERTO RICO. A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF CUBA. WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST CONTINUE AROUND 25 KT PER ASCAT. THIS MAY INCREASE TO 30 KT LATER TODAY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. SHIP REPORTS SHOW 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF BERMUDA BY LATE TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND STALLS JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI. HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THIS FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO FLORIDA FRI AND SAT THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLC SUNDAY...MAINTAINING STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT. LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO REACH 12 FT BY SUNDAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW RESIDUAL STRONG NW WINDS REMAINING S OF BERMUDA...MAINLY N OF 27N E OF 73W. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL AROUND 10 TO 15 FT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ANTILLES MAINLY E OF 75W. HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD BERMUDA TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH THU. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY STALLS ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT BUILDS TOWARD BERMUDA FRI INTO SAT. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AGAIN INCREASES SUN OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.