000 AGXX40 KNHC 160731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES 1016 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N84W IN THE NE GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NE MEXICO. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION STALLING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH TUE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AS NOTED BY BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER. THE FRESH NE FLOW VEER MORE SE TO S TONIGHT AS THE SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE TEXAS TUE INTO WED COAST WED AS DEEP LOW PRES DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THE BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NE GULF BY LATE WED...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE WED. THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF THU...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SECOND FRONT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ INTO FRI. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THIS...BUT IT'S NOT UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE 1027 MB HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS. CARIBBEAN... BUOY...SCATTEROMETER AND SSMI DATA SHOW GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT WINDS IN MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER AREA...EXCEPT FOR 20 TO 25 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE BASIN WEAKENS AS DEVELOPING LOW PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHING LATER TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC N OF THE AREA. NE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY TUE...THE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN BY EARLY WED. AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BUT REMAIN STRONG OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDING ACROSS FLORIDA ON FRI...INCREASING WINDS AGAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND GIVING LITTLE TIME TO THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ANY. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... THE BIG WEATHER MAKER REMAINS A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA EARLY TODAY. THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS LATER TODAY AS IT TREKS TO THE N OF BERMUDA BY LATE TODAY AS A 1001 MB LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE MAINLY N OF 28N E OF 72W BY LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TUE. WINDS DIMINISH INTO WED AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE EAST FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES. NORTHERLY SWELL PERSISTS INTO FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE WED...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE N OF 28N BY THU...AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM N FLORIDA TO PAST BERMUDA THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT AS IT REACHES A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON FRI. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N FROM 63W TO 75W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.