000 AGXX40 KNHC 150734 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009 CORRECTED NAME MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS. RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER LOUISIANA. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BANK OF SEA FOG OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA MOVING ONSHORE. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE STALLED FRONT. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW GULF SHOW THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF AN ANTICIPATED SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...DRIVEN BY A STRONG JET ALOFT STREAKING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TODAY...DEEPENING AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STALLED FRONT TO SURGE ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. INCREASING NE WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLC TUE AS A LOW PRES AREA DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS INTO WED. A SECOND FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED...AND CLEARS THE SE GULF BY LATE THU. CARIBBEAN... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 23Z SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSISTING OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...BUT GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BUOYS SHOW 10 TO 15 KT E TO SE FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON/EARLY TUE. THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS ALLOWS WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE TUE INTO WED AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THE FRONT DIMINISHES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THU NIGHT. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOW STRONG SW WINDS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA NEAR 75W AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT RUNS FROM 31N78W TO JACKSONVILLE FL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING LATER THIS MORNING...SAGGING SOUTH THEN STALLING AROUND 29N BY TONIGHT. THE BAND OF STRONG SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH N FLORIDA...REACHING A POSITION NEAR 31N75W BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER TO AROUND 1000 MB AS IT SHIFTS TO NEAR BERMUDA BY LATE MON. THE COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA REACHING A POSITION BY LATE MON FROM THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 27N STARTING MON BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER MON NIGHT AS IT MOVES NE OF BERMUDA...WITH STRONG GALES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW N OF 28N. THE FRONT CONTINUES S AND REACHES A POSITION THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TUE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND INTO THE AREA BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE WED...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THU...WITH SW WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE AHEAD OF IT IN THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.