000 AGXX40 KNHC 142005 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM WRN ATLC THROUGH SW GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S FLOW OVER REGION. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS AS OF 1800 UTC...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH A MAINLY WEST-TO-EAST TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE CONUS...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT DAY. FOR TONIGHT...SEA FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO ENVELOP MUCH OF NRN GULF FROM S TEXAS THROUGH MISSISSIPPI DELTA AHEAD OF FRONT AS WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER COOLER WATER. A STRONG UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP S STATES SUN...ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRES TO FORM ALONG BOUNDARY OVER N FLORIDA AND THE FRONT TO SAG S OVER ERN GULF SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES SHIFTS E AND DEEPENS...AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY BEHIND IT. N WINDS PICK UP BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT LATE SUN...THEN DIMINISH BY MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES S. RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF TEXAS COAST LATE TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER N FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... TRADES DIMINISH FROM W TO E STARTING SUN AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NRN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS OVER WRN CARIBBEAN INCREASE AGAIN LATE MON INTO TUE...AFTER LOW PRES SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO WRN ATLC SHIFTING COLD FRONT THROUGH CUBA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS BASIN TUE INTO WED AS WEAKENING FRONT TRANSLATES E ACROSS NRN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E INTO THE WRN ATLC. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N48W TO 24N62W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N74W. FURTHER W...1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 29N70W...MAINTAINING LIGHT FLOW N OF BAHAMAS. FRESH TRADES EVIDENT S OF 19N INTO LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS AHEAD OF LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT CUTS ACROSS CAROLINAS AND EMERGES OFF COAST N OF DISCUSSION AREA SUN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS THROUGH N FLORIDA COAST. SECOND LOW PRES AREA FORMS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NRN GULF OF MEXICO SUN AND SHIFTS E OFF N FLORIDA COAST LATE SUN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO ATLC ON MON. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING LOW PRES AT WHOPPING 982 MB N OF BERMUDA EARLY TUE...WITH ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS YIELDING A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW. STRONG GALES LATE MON INTO TUE LIKELY NEAR BERMUDA GIVEN THIS RAPID DEEPENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE FROM W TO E TUE INTO WED AS LOW PRES LIFTS OUT TO N CENTRAL ATLC WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. N SWELL WILL COVER WATERS NE OF BAHAMAS AS WELL BEHIND LOW PRES. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES/COHEN/RUBIO. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER