000 AGXX40 KNHC 130701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOYS SHOW LIGHT E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO ALMOST THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LARGE PATCHES OF FOG BLANKETING THE SE GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO HINTS OF ANOTHER FOG BANK OVER OVER THE NW GULF APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DIGS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT INTO SUN. STRONG JET ALOFT INITIATES A LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES SUN ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID GULF BY SUN EVENING WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT DISSIPATES MON THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST INTO THE SE U.S. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN... BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA...WITH 30 KT WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. OTHERWISE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AND ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF BERMUDA THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. AND ASCAT PASS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT E OF 70W...BUT BUOYS ARE SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 70W AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BAND OF STRONG WINDS GRADUALLY CLEARS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRES...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THE BAND OF STRONG SW WINDS MIGRATES EAST BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA SUN. A SECOND DEEPER LOW PRES CENTER MIGRATES OFF THE COAST LATE SUN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALLOWING WINDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO INCREASE FURTHER. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD BERMUDA...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO WATERS BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA MON...SHIFTING NE OF BERMUDA TUE. OTHERWISE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 25N THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING S TO 18N MON AND THU IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER COLD FRONT. TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS PERSIST THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST INTO MON...THEN DIMINISH MON INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER