000
AGXX40 KNHC 121911
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N84W TO 25N92W TO 18N94W DISSIPATE 
TONIGHT.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHED OVER GULF AS HIGH PRES OVER 
SE STATES IS FORCED E BY NEW COLD FRONT ENTERING N GULF SUN. 
FRONT REACHES FROM 29N84W TO 25N92W TO 18N95W LATE SUN NIGHT AND 
CROSSES SE OF AREA LATE MON NIGHT.  HIGH WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY N 
AND W OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER WITHIN HOURS OF ENTRY OF NEXT COLD FRONT 
INTO GULF BUT WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

SW N ATLC...
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N TO S FL MAINTAINING TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT RELAXES ITS GRIP OVER SRN WATERS AND CARIBBEAN AS IT 
MOVES E FORCED BY INCOMING COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT CROSSES SW N 
ATLC BASIN WITHIN 26 HRS WITH STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ANOTHER HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS UP BEHIND 
FRONT FRI THROUGH SAT BUT IS SOON FORCED OUT EWD BY NEXT COLD 
FRONT OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE SUN.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT 
WITH PREVIOUS RUN IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SYSTEM...FORECAST 
FOLLOWS GFS AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SERIES OF 
FRONTS/RIDGES CROSSING BASIN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
STRONG CARIBBEAN WINDS DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1010 MB 
LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE EASE FROM W TO E 
WITH RIDGE EWD DRIFT.  TRADES REMAIN BRISK ACROSS MUCH OF 
TROPICAL N ATLC INTO SUN AS SUGGESTED BY GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE 
FIELDS SINCE HIGH PRES CENTER REMAINS CLOSER TO BASIN.

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER