000 AGXX40 KNHC 120730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FL SW TO 27N90W...AND TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. A RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 26N. CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PRETTY MUCH OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKE EWD PROGRESS. WINDS E OF THE FRONT ARE SE-S 10-15 KT...EXCEPT SW 15-20 KT N OF 28N...AND E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE SW PORTION E OF THE FRONT AND NW-N 15 KT W OF THE THE S OF ABOUT 23N. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4-6 FT IN W HALF OF THE GULF..EXCEPT 2-3 FT S OF 20N AND TO 3-5 FT IN THE E HALF OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...THEN IT WILL BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT SHOWING N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF THE FRONT ON SAT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO FAR SRN TEXAS BY LATE SAT...AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N LATE SAT AND SUN. AN AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE GULF INCREASING N-NE WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF MUCH OF THE GULF LATE SUN THROUGH MON. THIS SURGE OF HIGH PRES THEN DRIVES THE FRONT SE ACROSS THE E GULF MON...AND TO JUST SE OF THE AREA LATE MON. 00Z UTC NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT MAYBE ABOUT 2 FT UNDONE N OF 25N W OF 88W...AND N OF 28N E OF 88W AS HIGHER WINDS EARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER SEAS IN THOSE AREAS WHICH ARE SLOW IN LOWERING. SW N ATLC... RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N65W TO S FL EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW PRES WELL OVER S AMERICA. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W IS NOW REPORTING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE BEING OBSERVED PER SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA FROM JUST PASSED 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT WITH HIGHER WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS ARE IN THE THE 8-12 FT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS OVER WATERS NEAR HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N...SEAS ARE 6-9 FT ...EXCEPT SW OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 4-7 FT. WINDS OVER THE NW ARE RESPONDING TO THE APPROACH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...AND HAVE VEERED TO THE S-SW AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 7 FT AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41010 AND 44004. ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. S OF THE RIDGE TO 25N OVER THE FAR E SECTION ...WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 7-9 FT IN E SWELL. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SLIDES E TO JUST E OF THE FORECAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT THEN REACHES FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND FROM 31N66W TO 28N71W...AND STATIONARY TO E CENTRAL FL BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES EXITS THE N CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS SAT...AND TO E OF THE NE WATERS LATE SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON...AND EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE MON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BE ALONG AND N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH FRI. THIS WINDS THEN DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS SAT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BE MUCH STRONGER WITH WINDS 0F 20-30 KT BEHIND AND SW OF 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT TOWARDS LATE MON WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATING UP 13 FT N OF 30N BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 10 OR 11 FT E OF THE FRONT TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATLC HIGH PRES OF 1027 MB N OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N60W PER THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF ABOUT 81W THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING ACROSS THESE WATERS. NE-TRADES OF 20-25 KT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE NOTED IN BOTH BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS OVER THIS AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 8-14 FT RANGE... WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT...THEN DIMINISH LATE THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC SLIDES EWD IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER...TRADES REMAIN ON THE BRISK SIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT INTO SUN AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z UTC RUN OF THE GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE FIELDS. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. SEAS SUBSIDE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUN AND MON...BUT MAY BE ABOUT 8-9 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO AN E SWELL. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.