000 AGXX40 KNHC 111847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT ENTERED THE GULF SHORTLY AFTER 07 UTC THIS MORNING WITH NWP MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS/ECMWF VERIFYING WELL ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTS ENTRANCE INTO THE GULF. THE FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE NLY SURGE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST HAS MATERIALIZED WITH TAMPICO REPORTING NLY WINDS OF 30 KT WITHIN THE PAST HR. OTHERWISE PLATFORMS NW OF THE FRONT HAVE REPORTED NW-N WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SLY WINDS CONTINUE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W BY THIS EVENING WITH ANY NLY SURGE CONFINED TO THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WEAKENS FROM W-CENTRAL FL TO TEXAS EARLY THU...THEN MOVES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU AND FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO NOW MOVE INTO THE N GULF FRI EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS BY LATE SAT. AS STATED EARLIER...THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK INITIALLY WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT. THE FRONT STALLS IN PLACE SUN BUT AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS N OF THE FRONT NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT. ON MON THE FRONT SAGS SWD TO ALONG 26N/27N WITH NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF FRONT AND W OF 85W. SW N ATLC... STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N65W SW TO NE FL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW PRES WELL OVER S AMERICA. THIS MORNINGS 1020 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAYS PASS IN DEPICTING NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEARED TO BE CONFINED TO THE ATLC PASSAGES EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-11 FT IN THIS AREA OF WINDS MAINLY E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W REPORTING ENE WINDS OF 20 KT AND 9 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 25N E OF 73W CLOSER TO THE RIDGE ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH E WINDS OF 10-15 KT. SE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SLIDES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THU AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY THU AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO 29N81W BY LATE THU. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT WHICH SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON FRI W OF THE FRONT BUT E OF 70W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT/SAT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES EXITS THE N CAROLINA COAST. NWP MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW AT THIS TIME WHICH POSES CHALLENGES FOR THE WIND FORECASTS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE MODELS AND HAVE A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW OVER NC WITH RESULTANT SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREADING OVER THE ZONE N OF 28N SAT INTO SUN. THE LOW DRAGS ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT WHICH SLIDES SWD TO ALONG 28N/29N BY LATE SUN. A REINFORCING COLD SURGE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MON WITH NW-N WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT MON N OF THE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 25N80W BY LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER S AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PLAYER WITH RESPECT TO WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. NE-TRADES OF 20-25 KT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE NOTED IN BOTH BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 13 FT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TIME-SECTION PLOTS OF 925 MB WINDS REVEALS CLOSE TO 35 KT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST TONIGHT AND THU...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN OF THESE WINDS FOR TIME BEING. CURRENT WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH FRI WILL HOLD FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. NWP MODELS ARE FCSTG THAT NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL COVER THE FORECAST WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN...AND PEAKING AT 14-15 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE FRI THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC MOVES EWD. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS OF 10 FT THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS TROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT AS SUGGESTED BY THE WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH MUCH OF FRI BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER ON FRI THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS GREATLY DECREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FRI AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT INTO MON. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.