000 AGXX40 KNHC 110828 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF GULF SW OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO STRAITS OF FL. W GULF BUOYS 42001 AND 42002 HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OVER REMAINDER OF GULF...WINDS ARE SE-S 10-15 KT. SEAS RANGE FROM 7-10 FT IN THE NW PORTION N OF 25N W OF 93W AND TO 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 87W TO 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE ...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART AND 6-9 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FL. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST REVEALED A WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 11 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH BUOY 42002 SINCE IT JUST RECENTLY REPORTED SEAS TO 10 FT. WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST IN JUST A FEW HOURS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE OVER THE NW AND MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE GULF TODAY...AND DIMINISH TO SE 10-15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER SW GULF ZONE. LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS SHIFTING TO NW-N INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W GULF TODAY WITH A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 20-30 KT IN THE SW GULF PRIMARILY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. GFS/NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING 30 KT TODAY...AND DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-9 FT TODAY THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT INTO LATE FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF FRI AND SAT WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT S OF W OF 90W AND OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. MODELS FORECAST FRONT TO WEAKEN FROM FROM N FL TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...THEN MOVE IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU AND FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT SHOWING WINDS NE WINDS ABOUT 15 TO AT TIMES 20 KT N OF THE ON SAT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO FAR SRN TEXAS BY LATE SAT...AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N LATE SAT AND SUN AS AND AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE GULF INCREASING N-NE WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF MUCH OF THE GULF. 00Z UTC NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED ABOUT 3-4 FT TOO LOW OVER THE WRN GULF AND 1-2 FT TOO LOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE MIDDLE GULF AS COMPARED TOO BUOY OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT AND THE JASON ALTIMETER PASS RECEIVED LAST NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC... STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N70W SW TO NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW PRES WELL OVER S AMERICA. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W IS REPORTING NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TO 10FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BEING OBSERVED PER SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA FROM JUST PASSED 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT. SEAS ARE MAXING OUT TO AROUND 13 FT E OF THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOWER SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 25N CLOSER TO THE RIDGE ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT E OF 73W AND E-SE 10 KT WINDS W OF 73W. SEAS THERE ARE BEING DERIVED FROM A N SWELL WITH RANGES OF 4-6 FT E OF 73W AND 2-4 FT W OF 73W...EXCEPT 2-3 FT N OF 28N W OF 78W. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SLIDES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THUS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS THU MORNING AND REACHES FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W BY THU AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM 31N66W TO 28N71W...AND STATIONARY TO E CENTRAL FL BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES EXITS THE N CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS SAT AND SUN. LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS AND THE REGIONAL NAM FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT ALL POINT TO SW-W WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT ON SAT AND SUN. BEING THAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THESE WINDS WILL LEANN TOWARDS THESE SOLNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER S AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PLAYER WITH RESPECT TO WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. NE-TRADES OF 20-25 KT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE NOTED IN BOTH BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS OVER THIS AREA. SEAS ARE BUILDING AGAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 13 FT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TIME-SECTION PLOTS OF 925 MB WINDS REVEALS CLOSE TO 35 KT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST TONIGHT AND THU...BUT LAPSE RATES HERE DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN OF THESE WINDS FOR TIME BEING. CURRENT WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH FRI WILL HOLD FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE 00Z UTC RUN OF THE GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THAT NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL COVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY E OF 80W WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN REACHING TO 14 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC MOVES EWD. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS OF 10 FT THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS TROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT AS SUGGESTED BY THE WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH MUCH OF FRI BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER ON FRI THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS GREATLY DECREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FRI AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT INTO SUN. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.