000 AGXX40 KNHC 101928 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG 30N BUT THE PARENT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF WITH BUOYS/CMANS W OF 87W REPORTING SE TO S WINDS OF 20-25 KT. A PARTIAL 1226 UTC HIGH RES QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF AROUND 8 FT OVER THE NW GULF...8-10 FT OVER THE FAR N-CENTRAL GULF AND 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED. WINDS SHIFT TO NW-N 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WED AND BRIEFLY UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF WHERE ENOUGH FUNNELING OF NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK UP WINDS THERE. FRONT THEN WEAKENS FROM FROM N FL TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...THEN MOVES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU AND FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 28N OVERNIGHT FRI...THEN EXTEND FROM W CENTRAL FL TO THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. THE FRONT STALLS SUN ALONG 27N AND AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS N OF THE FRONT INITIALLY LIGHT NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... STRONG RIDGE ALONG 31N CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW PRES WELL OVER S AMERICA. THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS GENERALLY S OF 26N. THE SAME PASS INDICATED LOCALLY 30 KT WINDS N OF PUERTO RICO WHERE BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING STEADY NE KT WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT. LIGHT WINDS WERE NOTED N OF 26N AND NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS NOTED ABOVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SLIDES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY LATE WED WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 26N BY THU AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS MID DAY THU AND EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W BY LATE THU...MOVES SE AND EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO 29N81W BY LATE FRI. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES EXITS THE NC-SC CAROLINA BORDER. AS THE LOW DEEPENS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 28N. THE LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. THE FRONT SWEEPS SE AND EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO E-CENTRAL FL BY LATE SUN WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 70W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER S AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PLAYER WITH RESPECT TO WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. NE-TRADES OF 20-25 KT COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AREA OF 20-30 KT TRADES EXPANDS TO COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14-15 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC MOVES EWD AND WEAKENS. THE GFS HINTS AT GALES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION GUSTS TO GALE FORCE PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED NEAR CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND PASSAGES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP 10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THU CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS. SEAS UP TO 11 FT ARE FORECAST BY THE WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH MUCH OF FRI BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SAT. WINDS AND SEAS GREATLY DECREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FRI AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT INTO SUN. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.