000 AGXX40 KNHC 091902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE ALONG 30N ASSOCIATED WITH A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER N FL WILL SLIDE E OF THE GULF THROUGH WED. CURRENT CMAN/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW BROAD E-SE WINDS COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT W OF 87W...AND ALSO OVER THE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W. BUOYS 42002 AND 42055 HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. SEAS OVER THE ERN GULF ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT AND 6-8 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS. OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF...SEAS HAVE BUILT UP TO 8-11 FT IN THE SUSTAINED AREA OF FRESH SE TO S WINDS. AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES N OF THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE RETURN FLOW BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED 30 KT WINDS TUE NIGHT. NWW3 BRINGS SEAS TO 11 FT IN THIS FLOW WHICH LIKE THIS MORNINGS FCST MAY BE UNDERDONE AND WILL THEREFORE GO WITH SEAS TO 12-13 FT TUE NIGHT FAR NW GULF. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST JUST AFTER 06Z WED SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST WITH MOST OF THE NWP MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS TIMING. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NLY WINDS BRIEFLY REACHES 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO THEN QUICKLY ABATES. THE FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED...BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN MOVING NWD THU. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI EVENING WHICH SWEEPS RAPIDLY SE AND EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TAMPICO BY LATE SAT WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF NW TO N WINDS RATHER BRIEF AND WEAK PERHAPS REACHING 20 KT...BEFORE VEERING TO NE TO E AT 15 KT LATE SAT. SW N ATLC... 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NE FL THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING EWD ALONG 29N PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW PRES WELL S OF THE ATLC OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WIND FLOW OVER THE WATERS S OF 25N. A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1115 UTC CONFIRMED THE EXISTENCE OF THIS BELT OF WINDS. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN A N SWELL. SEAS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE EXCEPT 5-8 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 25N ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH NE 10-15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FT E OF 69W AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 26N CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THAT THE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUE. THE PARENT HIGH CENTER THEN MOVES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY LATE WED WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 27N BY WED NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 28N W OF 70W WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY THU. THE FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA AND ONLY EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE THU...THEN STALLS ALONG 29N BY LATE FRI. LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SAT AND MOVES NE N OF THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...WHICH SPREAD EWD AND AVERAGE 20-25 KT GENERALLY N OF 28N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN 1115 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THAT HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED. THE HIGHEST WINDS OF 25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND TO THE SE OF CUBA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 8-9 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE. THE RESPITE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE TUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRI OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 81W...AND THE WHOLE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GALES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WED NIGHT AND THU HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FCST TO SEE IF THE MODELS TRENDS HOLD FOR THIS. IN ANY EVENT THE NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 14 FT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND TO 12 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY FRI. OVERALL PATTERN IS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS SAT WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS SUBSIDE OVER BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE EXPECTED IN THE LONG PERIOD N SWELLS THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SWELLS PICK UP AGAIN TUE AND WED BUILDING TO 10 FT ON WED AND THU. THESE SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT ON FRI AND SAT AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS EWD. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.