000 AGXX40 KNHC 090742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON FEB 8 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE ALONG 30N ASSOCIATED WITH A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER N FL WILL SLIDE E OF THE GULF THROUGH WED. CURRENT CMAN/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN E-SE WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT W OF 90W...AND ALSO OVER THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 25N. BUOYS 42002 AND 42019 HAVE BEEN SHOWING GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WINDS CONTINUE ON THE BRISK SIDE OVER THE SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FL WHERE SPEEDS ARE NE-E 20-25 KT. WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER OVER THE NE GULF NEAR THE HIGH CENTER WHERE BUOY REPORTS THERE ARE NOTING NE-E WINDS OF 5-10 KT. SEAS OVER THE ERN GULF ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART AND 6-8 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...SEAS HAVE BUILD UP TO 8-10 FT IN THE NW PORTION N OF 25N W OF 94W AND TO 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 21N W OF 94W. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF 90W ARE 4-7 FT. THE STRONG SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON ...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT ON TUE. WINDS THEN BECOME SW IN DIRECTION OVER THE NW AND MIDDLE SECTIONS ON WED IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING E OF THE GULF...AND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING. SE-S WINDS DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER ON WED. THE 00Z UTC RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM IS AGAIN IN GOOD GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF WED MORNING. NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE OF SEAS UP TO 10 FT LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH CURRENT OBSERVED VALUES ACROSS THE GULF SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SEAS OF 10 FT IN THE NW GULF ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO SOME IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TO 10 FT ON TUE...THEN SUBSIDE ON WED AFTER THE FRONT HAS EMERGED INTO THE WRN GULF. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY FRI WITH LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF 90W AND E OF 85W. WINDS SHIFT TO NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...EXCEPT MUCH HIGHER OVER THE FAR SW GULF WHERE A SLITHER OF NW-N 25-30 KT IS INDICATED BY FORECAST WIND FIELDS OF BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE CANADIAN TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS AS IS JUST ABOUT ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THIS MODEL. ALL MODELS AGREES THAT HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT MEXICAN TERRAIN EFFECTS ON N FLOW BEHIND FRONTS IS KNOWN TO KICK UP WINDS TO WARNING CRITERIA. CURRENT THINKING IS TO STAY CLOSE WITH CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS...AND SEE WHAT FUTURE RUNS OF THE OTHER NWP MODELS TREND UPWARD WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO QUICKLY WEAKEN FROM N FL TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...THEN MOVE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU AND FRI AS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE BY THEN. THE NWP MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE FRI OR BEYOND THAT TIME. GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS SOLN IN BRINGING THIS NEXT FRONT INTO THE GULF ON FRI MORNING. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS AND HOLD OFF IN INTRODUCING THIS NEXT FRONT INTO THE FORECAST WATERS. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB IS CENTERED OVER NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING PER 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. A RIDGE EXTENDS ESE FROM THE HIGH TO E OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH WITH LOW PRES WELL S OF THE ATLC OVER S AMERICA IS BRINGING A MODERATE NE WIND FLOW TO THE SRN WATERS OF THE AREA. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2230 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 25N. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN A N SWELL. SEAS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE EXCEPT 5-8 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 25N ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH NE 10-15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FT E OF 69W AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 26N CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE SRN WATERS AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 8-11 FT THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THU AND BE ABOUT 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THAT THE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUE. THE PARENT HIGH CENTER THEN MOVES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 27N BY THU. A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU AND REACHES FROM 31N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FL ON FRI. THIS FORCES THE RIDGE TO SLIDE SE TO ALONG 26N BY LATE ON FRI. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW 20 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS LATE WED THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE LESSEN SOME...BUT CONTINUE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH LOW PRES OVER CREATING THESE WINDS. LATEST GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 8-9 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE. THE RESPITE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRI OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 81W...AND THE WHOLE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WITH SEAS BUILDING POSSIBLY UP TO 14 FT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND TO 12 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VALID 00 UTC. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL IMPACTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND NEARBY PASSAGES THROUGH THIS MORNING...PICK UP AGAIN TUE AND WED BUILDING TO 10 FT ON WED AND THU. THESE SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT ON FRI AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS EWD. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.