000 AGXX40 KNHC 080739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE E OF THE GULF THROUGH WED. CURRENT CMAN/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN E-SE WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER FAR WRN WATERS W OF 94W...AND ALSO OVER THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 26N. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING CONCURRED WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE RATHER BRISK NE-E AT 20-25 KT IN THE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PART. SEAS OVER THE ERN GULF ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART AND 6-8 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...SEAS ARE 6-8 FT OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION N OF 26N...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE. THE SE WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY WED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL E OF THE GULF...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE W GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO FAR NE MEXICO. HOWEVER ...SE-S WINDS DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER ON WED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRONT INTO NW GULF WED MORNING. NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT OVER THE NW GULF BY MON...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT TUE...AND TO 5-6 FT BY THU. AS OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ...WINDS SHIFT TO NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT WED AS THE FRONT QUICKLY REACHES A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...EXCEPT MUCH HIGHER OVER THE FAR SW GULF WHERE A SLITHER OF NW-N 25-30 KT IS INDICATED BY FORECAST WINDS FIELDS OF BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE CANADIAN TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS AS IS JUST ABOUT ALWAYS THE CASE. ALL MODELS AGREES THAT HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT MEXICAN TERRAIN EFFECTS ON N FLOW BEHIND FRONTS IS KNOWN TO KICK UP WINDS TO WARNING CRITERIA. CURRENT THINKING IS TO STAY CLOSE WITH CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS...AND SEE WHAT FUTURE RUNS OF THE OTHER NWP MODELS TREND UPWARD WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO QUICKLY WEAKEN FROM THE NE TO SW GULF BY THU WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE BY THEN. SW N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N76W PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. A RIDGE EXTENDS ESE FROM THE HIGH TO E OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH WITH LOW PRES WELL S OF THE ATLC OVER S AMERICA IS CONTINUING TO BRING A VERY BRISK NE WIND FLOW TO THE SRN WATERS OF THE AREA. QUIKSCAT DATE FROM NEAR 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 26N WITH WINDS OF 30 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE 25 KT WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN A N SWELL. SEAS ELSEWHERE S OF 26N ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE EXCEPT 5-8 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 26N ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH NE 10-15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FT E OF 69W AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 26N CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. SWELLS WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING OVER THE SRN WATERS AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THOSE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 8-11 FT THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THU AND BE ABOUT 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THAT THE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA MON AND TUE. THE PARENT HIGH CENTER THEN MOVES SE TO JUST E OF THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 27N BY THU. A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE FAR NW WATERS ON THU. LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THU PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF OVER THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MAIN WEATHER ACTIVE WIND/SEA AREAS IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT CONTINUES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE NE 30 KT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE BEING REPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIPS AND QUIKSCAT DATA. SIMILAR WINDS ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE PER SHIP AND BUOY DATA ARE NE 20-25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST OF WINDS S OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AS SEEN IN BUOY AND RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA. LATEST GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...EXCEPT THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH WINDS STILL UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEAS WILL LOWER TO 8-9 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE...BUT QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN WED AND THU TO POSSIBLY UP TO 14 FT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND TO 12 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRES TO THE N BUILDS SE. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND NEARBY PASSAGES THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUE AND WED BUILDING TO 10 OR 11 FT ON WED AND THU. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.