000 AGXX40 KNHC 071904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG 1035 MB HIGH CENTER REMAINS ANALYZED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH RESULTANT RETURN SE FLOW NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF. CMAN/BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 94W STILL REPORTING SSE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT IN THIS FLOW. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE ONLY CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN THIS OVERALL REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS AN EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO COVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ACCORDINGLY THE NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 10 FT SUN INTO MON. WINDS EASE UP BRIEFLY MON NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUE INTO WED. A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED AND EXTENDS FROM THE AL/FL BORDER TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED. DESPITE AN INITIAL PUSH OF NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN FAVORED FUNNELING AREAS THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF AND BECOMES MORE E-W ORIENTED ALONG 28N BY LATE THU WITH NE TO E WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT BY THEN. NWP MODELS REMAIN IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA IS BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED WITH LIGHT N TO NE WINDS SPREADING EWD ALONG 29N AND NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 27N. A 1026 UTC HIGH RES QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEADY 25 KT WINDS SE OF A LINE THROUGH 25N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF FUNNELED 25-30 KT NE WINDS IN THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMA BANK IN LINE WITH THAN THE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE NWW3/MWW3 MODELS. RIDGE REMAINS E-W ORIENTED ALONG 29N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...OCCASIONALLY 25 KT PERSISTING THROUGH TUE. A HINT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRAZES THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE ZONE MON NIGHT AND TUE WHICH SERVES TO PICK UP NE TO E WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. ELY TRADES VEER TO THE SE W OF 75W ON WED AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION LATE WED...AND TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N THU IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST. BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W IS REPORTING 13 FT SEAS WITH SPECTRAL WAVE DATA INDICATING PEAK ENERGY AT A PERIOD OF 13-14 SEC...THUS INDICATING LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF NRN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF OVER THE AREA. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN FOR THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A 1026 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS NOTED TWO SEPARATE STREAMS OF N TO NE WINDS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 KT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE MONA PASSAGE JUST S OF HISPANIOLA. A VAST AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W TO 75W. AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUN AND BEGIN SHRINKING IN AREA BY MON. AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLC ON TUE A NEW SURGE OF 20-30 KT EASTERLIES DEVELOPS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WED AND THU. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 12-14 FT BY THU WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15-21N ALONG 59W AND IS INTERSECTING THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE. NE TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OCCURRING W OF THE TROUGH AND LIGHTER E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH. SEAS GENERALLY 8-11 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA. NW SWELLS GRADUALLY SWEEP SWD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA HGTS GENERALLY 9-10 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUN INTO MON. AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLC ON LATE TUE A NEW SURGE OF EASTERLIES DEVELOPS WITH WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.