000 AGXX40 KNHC 070742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED E OF THE NE GULF...AND HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 30N. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN PORTION...EXCEPT FOR NE 20 KT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PART. SEAS OVER THE ERN GULF ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART AND 5-8 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS. WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER OVER THE WRN HALF WHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS THERE ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SE 20-25 KT. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0100 UTC LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THESE WINDS (DIRECTION AND SPEEDS). THIS SAME QUIKSCAT ALSO SUGGESTED THAT NE-E WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT ARE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE SW GULF. BOTH BUOY AND CMAN REPORTS FROM THE WRN GULF ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE WITH HIGHER RANGE VALUES...IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE...NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD E TO ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SRN HALF OF THE ERN GULF THROUGH SUN...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN SW N ATLC INTERACTS WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN THESE INCREASING WINDS. WINDS DECREASE SOME IN THE NW GULF MON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TUE...AND CONTINUING AT 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND SE GULF THROUGH WED. THIS WILL BE PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING PER NWP MODEL CONSENSUS. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL MAX OUT TO 9 OR 10 FT OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF BY MON...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHT TUE. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS BACK UP TO 10 FT ON WED OVER THE NW GULF WITH THE SE-S 20-25 KT WINDS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT WED AS THE FRONT QUICKLY REACHES A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER OVER THE THIS PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO AND KEEP NW-N 25-30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR SW GULF...AND SEE WHAT IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A GALE EVENT THERE ON WED. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N65W SW TO THE ERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH. STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1033 MB IS CENTERED E OF NE FL NEAR 31N78W PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. A RIDGE EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE HIGH TO E OF THE AREA. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2316 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE WINDS 25 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN N SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH WINDS FROM THE N-NE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. LOWER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT ARE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN...BUT WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING OVER THE SRN WATERS AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE S AMERICA MAINTAINS A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SE AND S WATERS OVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS AND KEEPS SEAS ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THAT THE HIGH SLIDES E OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT AND FRONTAL DISSIPATES THROUGH SUN. A NEW HIGH THEN BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA MON AND TUE. THIS HIGH MOVES TO JUST NE OF THE AREA WED WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 28N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY LATE WED. LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF OVER THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA SW TO 16N74W...AND TO 13N81W. THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT HERE CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE W OF THE TROUGH OVER A SMALL SECTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT CONTINUES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED WITHIN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE NOTED SUCH WINDS. WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT PER SHIP AND BUOY DATA ARE NE 20-30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST OF WINDS S OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AS SEEN IN BUOY AND RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA. EXPECT PULSES OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN AT CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO 20-25 KT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE WINDS MAY STILL REACH 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT TIMES THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL LOWER TO 8-9 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AND WED. ENE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND PASSAGES WHILE LARGE LONG PERIOD N SWELLS IMPACT THE ISLANDS AND NEARBY PASSAGES THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN PICK UP AGAIN UP TO 10 FT ON WED. LINGERING N SWELLS OF 9 FT OVER THE E PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BUILD TO 10 FT TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT MON AND TUE...BUT BUILD AGAIN TO POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT ON WED PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. ATLANTIC... AMZ088...NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...GMZ084 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.