000 AGXX40 KNHC 070256 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W FOR TONIGHT... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG 1036 MB HIGH CENTER ANALYZED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MOVING E OF THE GULF WITH RESULTANT RETURN SE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SEVERAL CMAN/BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 93W ALREADY REPORTING SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT SEAS IN THIS FLOW. ONLY CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN THIS OVERALL REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS PERHAPS AN EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO COVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 10 FT WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. WINDS EASE UP SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT/TUE OVER THE NW GULF ZONE BEFORE INCREASING LATE TUE INTO WED. A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED AND EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 21N97W BY LATE WED. DESPITE AN INITIAL PUSH OF NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN FAVORED FUNNELING AREAS THE FRONT APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF. NWP MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT SLICES ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA AS OF 18 UTC. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT GENERALLY N OF THE FRONT AND S OF 25N...WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF FUNNELED 25+ KT NLY WINDS NEAR THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. SEAS ARE DECREASING SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE SHORT TERM FCSTS OF THE NWW3/MWW3 AND AREA GENERALLY 8-12 FT E OF 73W. HIGH PRESS OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVES EWD AND BECOMES MORE E-W ORIENTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SWATH OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO DEVELOP S OF 26N AND SEAS MAINTAINING 8-11 FT MAINLY E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE AREA N OF 26N NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT SAT GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN INTO MON. A HINT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRAZES THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE ZONE TUE WHICH SERVES TO PICK UP NE TO E WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. ELY TRADES VEER TO THE SE W OF 75W ON WED. BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W IS REPORTING 11 FT SEAS WITH SPECTRAL WAVE DATA INDICATING PEAK ENERGY AT A PERIOD OF 13 SEC...THUS INDICATING LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF NRN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF OVER THE AREA. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN FOR THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...WHERE RECENT SHIP REPORTS INDICATE 35 KT WINDS PRESENT. DESPITE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN LESS LOW LEVEL MIXING... TIME HEIGHT ANALYSES INDICATE 35 KT WINDS AS LOW AS 975 MB... WHICH ARE BEING TURBULENTLY MIXED TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE CYCLONIC TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS IT ROUNDS HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE EARLY SAT...WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT. IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A GALE WARNING WOULD BE REISSUED FOR THIS AREA AS OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO NEAR 12N78W WITH STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A 1050 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS NOTED TWO SEPARATE STREAMS OF N TO NE WINDS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 KT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE MONA PASSAGE JUST S OF HISPANIOLA. A VAST AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W. AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUN AND BEGIN SHRINKING IN AREA BY MON. AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLC ON TUE A NEW SURGE OF EASTERLIES DEVELOPS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WED. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY 7-9 FT...EXCEPT TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NOTED ABOVE. NW SWELLS GRADUALLY SWEEP SWD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA HGTS GENERALLY 9-10 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUN INTO MON. AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLC ON TUE A NEW SURGE OF EASTERLIES DEVELOPS WITH WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB/COHEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.