000 AGXX40 KNHC 060731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WITH A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH CENTER ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NRN GULF JUST S OF PENSACOLA FL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT ...WINDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW PORTION WHERE BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W IS REPORTING E WINDS OF 20 KT. BUOY AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS WITH THE MORE SLY WINDS IN RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WRN PART. OVER THE E PART ...WINDS ARE NE 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART AND 6-8 FT IN THE SW PORTION. AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES E OF THE AREA TO ACROSS N FL THROUGH SAT...EXPECT INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF REACHING TO 20-25 KT THROUGH SAT WITH E-SE FLOW ALSO INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HALF OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND OVER THE FAR SRN PORTION OF THE ERN GULF THROUGH SUN ...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH INTERACTS WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INDUCING THESE INCREASING WINDS. WINDS THEN DECREASE OVER THE NW GULF TUE. SEAS PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILD UP TO 10 FT OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF BY MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 8 FT TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO ERN TEXAS. SW N ATLC... A RECENTLY MERGED COLD FRONT JUST ENTERS THE FAR SE WATERS ...BUT QUICKLY BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO ACROSS THE ERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. THE FAR W EDGE OF A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2200 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W IS JUST UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH A REPORT OF N 15 KT WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FT IN A N SWELL. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NOTED IN THE CLASSIC STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD USUALLY SEEN IN SUCH COLD AIR OUTBREAKS IS CAUSING W-NW 20-25 KT N OF 26N W OF FRONT TO NEAR 69W. UPSTREAM BUOY REPORTS TO THE N OF 31N ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 9-13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL W OF THE FRONT TO 73W. WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH WINDS FROM THE N-NE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 6-8 FT EXCEPT MUCH REDUCED (3-5 FT) SEA STATE NOW BEING OBSERVED OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE W OF 70W...BUT WILL SLOW IN SUBSIDING ELSEWHERE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO STRETCH W TO E ROUGHLY ALONG 30N SAT THROUGH TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE S AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SE AND S WATERS OVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING SEAS CHURNED UP OVER THESE WATERS...SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE WITH HIGHEST VALUES E OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO LONG E FETCH...THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY MON. NCEP MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM SUGGEST THAT THE ABOVE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SSE INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS MON AND TUE FURTHER SUSTAINING THESE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. STILL IT APPEARS THAT LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS OF NRN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF OVER THE AREA. LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FROM THOSE ISLANDS WILL ISSUE MARINE STATEMENTS FOR NEARBY WATERS AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA SW TO 16N73W...THEN IS WASHING OUT SW TO THE NRN COAST OF PANAMA. THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT HERE CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE W OF THE FRONT OVER A SMALL SECTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE FLOW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION W OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW DEEP INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM 10 TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID PCEX NEAR 11N79W REPORTED N WINDS OF 35 KT AT 0600 UTC. WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT PER SHIP AND BUOY DATA ARE NE 20-30 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST OF WINDS S OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK...WHILE THE OTHER N-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST ...BASED ON LATEST GFS WIND GUIDANCE...TO REMAIN AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...BUT REMAINING UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE WINDS THEN DECREASE TO ABOUT 20-25 KT LATER SUN THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS 9-10 FT OVER THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MAX OF THESE SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6-8 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT AND LESS JUST TO THE W OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND PASSAGES WHILE LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEING GENERATED BY THIS MOST RECENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE ISLANDS AND NEARBY PASSAGES BEGINNING TODAY SUN THEN SUBSIDING SUN AFTERNOON TO 8 FT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE. LINGERING N SWELLS UP TO 8 FT OVER THE E PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 FT SAT THROUGH SUN...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC... AMZ088...NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W AND 79W TILL 12 UTC...GMZ084 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.