000
AGXX40 KNHC 051849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EST THU FEB 5 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF...STRONG 1028 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA. 
QUIKSCAT AND BUOY/CMAN DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF 20+ KT 
WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED S AND E OF A LINE FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO
THE N COAST OF YUCATAN. SE RETURN FLOW OF 15 KT ALREADY IN 
ERNEST OVER THE NW GULF. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EWD AREA OF RETURN 
FLOW SPREADS E AND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF
FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THIS STABLE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO 
NEXT WEEK REPRESENTS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE CHANGEABLE PATTERN 
OF THE PAST 10 DAYS.   

SW N ATLC...
COLD FRONTS HAVE MERGED AND AS OF 18 UTC EXTEND FROM 31N59W TO 
EXTREME ERN HISPANIOLA AND SHOULD MOVE E OF THE ENTIRE ZONE 
TONIGHT. SHIP REPORT FROM SHIP OF CALL SIGN TBWAA10 OVER THE FAR 
NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NW WINDS OF 30 KT INDICATES THE GALE 
HAS ENDED OVER THE SW N ATLC. DESPITE THIS A LARGE AREA OF 
20-30 KT WINDS STILL REMAINS OVER THE ZONE E OF 76W WITH SEAS 
REMAINING ELEVATED AS BUOY 44004 REPORTED 19 FT SEAS PAST HOUR.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT BY FRI WITH 9-13 FT 
SWELLS PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS 1035 MB 
RIDGE BECOMES MORE ELONGATED E-W NE TO E WINDS PICK UP AGAIN 
TO 20-25 KT S OF 27N SAT THROUGH TUE WITH ONLY MINOR 
FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. LONG FETCH OF WINDS RESULTS IN
A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF 8-12 FT SEAS MAINLY E OF THE 
BAHAMAS. N OF 27N...LIGHT NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN
FRESHEN TO 15-20 KT TUE AS BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES NE OF THE AREA 
WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLC REGION. 
SEAS MAY PEAK AT 9 FT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY 
LATE TUE. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LONG PERIOD SWELLS
...11-12 SEC AND 11-13 FT SPREAD SWD TO NRN HISPANIOLA 
TONIGHT...AND THEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE FRI 
AND FRI NIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF OVER THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
MERGED COLD FRONTS EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO 17N75W TO 11N80W. 
THE COLD AIR DIVING SWD INTO THE W CARIB HAS ENHANCED NNE FLOW 
ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIB WITH TWO AREAS OF GALES ALONG AND 
OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA...WITH 20 TO 30 
KT WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE W OF 74W. ACCELERATED FLOW 
DOWNWIND OF CUBA...AND W OF JAMAICA...HAVE ALSO RESULTED IN 
PERIODS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS PER AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT 
PASS. N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE W HALF 
OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN WITH SEAS REACHING 12 TO 15 FT IN THE 
INTERIM. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E HALF 
OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT EXCEPT 6 FT AND LESS 
JUST TO THE W OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND PASSAGES 
WHILE LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEING GENERATED BY THIS MOST 
RECENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HIT THE ISLANDS AND PASSAGES FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...AFFECTING THE W AND NW COASTS. 

ATLANTIC...
AMZ088...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W AND FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.