000
AGXX40 KNHC 020751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...SE TO S FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF PREVAILS 
AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN NE TEXAS. 
MID LEVEL VORT AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A 
SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A WAVE OR LOW ALONG THE FRONT 
AS IT DROPS INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEPS SE. 
LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-30 KT SSE FLOW INTO COASTAL 
LOUISIANA AND WAS INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING CNVTN THERE. GALE 
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE CONDITIONS...AS IT MOVES 
ACROSS THE NRN GULF TODAY...STRADDLING THE OFF SHORE COASTAL 
WATERS AND THE NRN OFF SHORE WATERS. DEEP CNVTN ALONG AND AHEAD 
OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS 
FROM 90W INTO NW AND W CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO 
THE CENTRAL AND THEN SE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A 
BRIEF 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE W AND SW GULF AS COLD DENSE AIR DAMS UP ALONG THE 
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALES. SEAS THERE EXPECTED TO BUILD 9-11 FT BY 
LATE EVENING. FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH S FLORIDA TO YUCATAN 
CHANNEL BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE GULF. 8 TO 10 FT 
SEAS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF 
BEHIND THE FRONT IN STEEP WIND SWELL.

CARIBBEAN...
FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIB TONIGHT WITH 
FRAGMENTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RETREATING WWD. SURFACE HIGH 
ACROSS THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE AND IS WEAKENING PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER A 20-25 KT 
ENE FLOW STILL PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W. MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF...WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS REMAINING OFF OF THE COLUMBIAN COAST AS A 
WIND SURGE CURRENTLY ALONG 72W CONTINUES WWD. NWLY SWELL OF 10 
SECONDS GENERATED BEHIND THE CURRENT W ATLC FRONT HAS REACHED 
THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND MOVED THROUGH THE PASSAGES AND INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN...MAKING FOR ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS IN AND TO THE 
SSE OF MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. THIS SWELL IS CURRENTLY 
PEAKING ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND WILL BEGIN TO FADE LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N45W TO N 
OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 20N WHERE IT BECOME DIFFUSE...WITH THE 
BROKEN REMNANTS AND FRAGMENTED MOISTURE THEN EXTENDING WWD 
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE NE COAST OF CUBA. AS 
INDICATE ABOVE...THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH WAS JUST NE OF 
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE. FLOW HAS BECOME E TO 
SE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL VEER MORE S TO SE TODAY AND INCREASE 
TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE OF 
FLORIDA...POTENTIALLY REACHING 25 KT IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT BEFORE THIS EVENING. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ON 
THE DECREASE AS THE NWLY SWELL FROM THE FRONT CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE SE INTO THE CENTRAL AND TROPICAL ATLC. S TO SW FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 25 TO 35 KT 
TONIGHT FROM THE NW BAHAMAS EXTENDING NE TOWARDS BERMUDA. SEAS 
WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING RAPIDLY 8 TO 11 FT IN STEEP WIND SWELL. 
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AND DEEP CNVTN ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW 
DEGREES OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE 
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN TSTMS. 

ATLANTIC...
AMZ088...GALE WARNING.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ082...GALE WARNING.

FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.