000 AGXX40 KNHC 011608 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1105 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES MOVED W TO E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS NOW CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A PRES AROUND 1027 MB. THIS IS ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...WITH AREAS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BETWEEN A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC...AND A LOW PRES AREA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM ONTARIO TO TEXAS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG JET DIGS SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COMES IN PHASE WITH AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY MON. GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK LOW SPINNING UP BY EARLY MON OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THEN SHIFTING E TO N FLORIDA AS THE NEXT FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO BY LATE MON. THE FRONT CLEARS THE GULF BY EARLY TUE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT LENDS SUPPORT TO A REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON WED...KEEPING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS DIMINISH WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES FRI OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO N FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA DISSIPATES THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NE 25 KT WINDS ARE GETTING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF THE FRONT. FRESH NE TRADES ARE BLOWING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES OVER FLORIDA SHIFT E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC...ALLOWING WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN MON BUT ALSO ALLOW TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN INCREASE. SOME INDICATIONS OF NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT FROM COLOMBIAN COAST TO EASTERN APPROACHES TO THE PANAMA CANAL. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT...BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AS WINDS INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM HAITI TO HONDURAS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FLORIDA. TRADES INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A 1027 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IS EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER...BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THE HIGH PRES WILL LIFT OUT TO THE N CENTRAL ATLC MON...LEAVING A RIBBON OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY S OF 24N INTO TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES N OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF N FLORIDA BY LATE MON...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY EARLY TUE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ON TUE N OF 28N BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT STABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR MIXING THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASES THE INSTABILITY...BUT GRADIENT FLOW APPEARS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. BEST BET FOR GALES MAY BE JUST W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N ON TUE...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. THE FRONT IS REINFORCED WED...AND ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE MODELS...THIS MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CASE FOR GALES. CURRENT FORECAST ADDRESSES THIS AND NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. THE MERGED FRONTS MOVE SE REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY THU...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTS WILL PRODUCE SWELL WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 17 FT AND WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 12S. WAVEWATCH III SHOWS THE HIGHEST SWELL PROPAGATING SE TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS...BUT NW SWELL OF UP TO 12 FT WILL REACH FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MON...THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.