000 AGXX40 KNHC 010826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH HAS DROPPED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IN THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...INDUCING A MUCH WEAKENED WIND FLOW FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY. RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE GULF WITH COOL MODIFIED AIR STREAMING NNW INTO TEXAS. BUOYS OFF THE TEXAS COAST GENERALLY ONLY SHOWING 15 KT ATTM. FRESH NELY FLOW OF 20 KT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE GULF AND INTO THE YUCATAN HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT IN RECENT HOURS...WITH SEAS DROPPING 8-9 FT...EXCEPT STILL POSSIBLY 10 FT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GULF WIDE THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE A NEXT FRONT SINKS INTO THE REGION AND THEN INTO THE NW GULF BY 36 HOURS. 20-30 KT NLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT ARE EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 12 FT SEAS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST. CARIBBEAN... THE ATLANTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED SE TO ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING WSW TO JAMAICA THEN SW TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. THIS HAS INDUCED A NNE TO NE 20-25 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIB WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. SE OF THE FRONT AND TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WINDS REMAIN NE 15-20 KT EXCEPT ALONG COASTAL COLUMBIA...WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS WERE DEPICTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE SSW TO NEAR THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF THIS TROUGH...E TO ENE WINDS OF 15 KT AND LESS PREVAILED WITH SEAS 6 FT AND LESS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NW CARIB THROUGH 24 HOURS WILL PUSHING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE ELY BY 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF THE U.S. WHICH WILL IN TURN INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...AND PRODUCE 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CARIB...AND MAINTAIN 20-25 KT NE TRADES OFF OF COLUMBIA. BY 36 HOURS...NNW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BLEED THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES AND THEN BEGIN TO REACH THE NW COASTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BUT SLOWED CONSIDERABLY THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LAY DOWN MORE E TO W ALONG ABOUT 19-20N AS THE SUPPORTING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC LIFTS UP AND OUT OVER THE DOMINATING CENTRAL ATLC UPPER RIDGE. GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF 31N...AND WITHIN ABOUT 4 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES ESE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE ATLC WILL ALSO VEER NE TO E EXCEPT DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN 20 KT AND HIGHER GENERALLY 5 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA...AND WILL LARGELY PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BEYOND. SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 12-18 FT N OF 27N THE PAST 8 HOURS. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD SWELL OF 9-11 SECONDS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO HIT THE W ATLC BUOYS NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST BY WWII TO REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND PEAK OVERNIGHT THERE AT GREATER THAN 6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO E TO SE TRADES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...WITH A NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE E COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BE REINFORCED BY A SECOND BOUNDARY CATCHING UP TO IT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MOVE IN A VERY EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH W TO WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING AMZ080 THROUGH 12 UTC. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.