000 AGXX40 KNHC 311601 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY SUN. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVER SOUTHERN GULF WATERS...AND FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS MON...IN PHASE WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NW GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MAINLY S OF TAMPICO BY LATE MON. WINDS START TO SUBSIDE TUE AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS E...BUT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES PROVOKES A REINFORCING FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE WED...INITIATING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN BY THU AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE AREA. CARIBBEAN... SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE. THIS FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH SUN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA. WINDS N OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT DIMINISH JUST AS TRADES INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA. 20 TO 25 KT TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED SUN INTO TUE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE TRADES START TO DIMINISH TUE INTO WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY TUE. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU ACCORDINGLY. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A FEW AREAS OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT PROGRESSES RAPIDLY E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES ALONG ROUGHLY 31N...WHICH IN TURN MAINTAINS A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY S OF 27N. NORTHERLY SWELL TO 13 FT FOLLOWS AS WELL IN THE WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP BY LATE MON IN THE WATERS OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE HATTERAS AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTS BY EARLY TUE...OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SUBSIDE BY LATE TUE AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT. THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE AREA BY LATE WED...AHEAD OF A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL BY LATE WED IN THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...SUBSIDING THU. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING AMZ080 TODAY. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.