000 AGXX40 KNHC 301709 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN GENERALLY STALLED FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE IS STARTING TO PICK UP STEAM AGAIN AND MOVE SE. THE REINFORCING IMPETUS FOR THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF VERIFIED EARLIER WITH REPORTS OF 35 KT AT BUOY 42055...WITH STRONGER WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR VERACRUZ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE GULF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE COAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT...LEAVING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...AND THE START OF MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG JET MAX DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS OUT ANOTHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS LATE SUN. THE TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN PHASE WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY MON. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LOW WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY DEPICTED TWO DAYS AGO. MODELS TRENDS DEPICT SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE TRENDING AROUND 30 KT...WITH NORTHERLY GALES BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE NW GALE AREA...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK THE AREA AS A RESULT. THE FRONT RAPIDLY BLOWS THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A RESURGENT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE EVENING. STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS AND DISSIPATES FROM HAITI TO CENTRAL HONDURAS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRES RAPIDLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY SUN. THIS SURGE IS BRIEF HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MAINLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE MON...BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER TRADES TO ALL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO 28N80W...THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SURGE EAST...REACHING A POSITION FROM 55W TO 19N66W BY MIDDAY SUN. WINDS DIMINISH FROM STARTING OFF THE N FLORIDA SPREADING SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES N OF THE BAHAMAS BY MON...AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...MOVING FROM THE NE GULF TO OFF HATTERAS MON INTO TUE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT OF GALE CONDITIONS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...GENERALLY N OF 28N W OF 70W BY TUE...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW A WEAKER LOW PRES THEN PREVIOUS RUNS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ082 TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.