000 AGXX40 KNHC 261745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EST MON JAN 26 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... WEAK BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. RIDGE WILL CONTRACT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY THURSDAY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 70W. BY FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOME SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES NORTH OF 20N. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO REACHING FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY AND PASSING EAST OF 65W LATE SATURDAY. SURFACE... RIDGE NORTH OF 25N WITH ABOVE NORMAL TRADE WINDS EAST OF 80W. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FROM THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD REACHING NORTH FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THURSDAY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRIDAY REACHING FROM NEAR 31N78W TO BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND 31N72W TO YUCATAN PENINSULA MIDDAY FRIDAY AND 31N62W TO MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME SATURDAY AS HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST SPREADS OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAVE INDICATED GALES WITH THE FRONT. 06Z RUN ONLY INDICATES SOME AREAS OF 30 KNOT WINDS. WILL LOOK AT 12Z RUN TO DECIDE HOW TO ADJUST GALE CONDITIONS. LAST MINUTE LOOK AT 12Z SHOWS GALES MARGINAL BUT WILL KEEP GALE IN THE FORECAST AS 30 KT SEEMS A SURE BET AND HEADLINE IS ALREADY IN TEXT PRODUCT. FURTHER MODEL RUNS WITH NO GALE MAY FORCE REMOVAL OF EXPECTED GALE. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.