000 AGXX40 KNHC 230631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA IS PROVIDING LIGHT FLOW E OF 90W. SE TO S RETURN FLOW INCREASES SOME OVER THE W WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF WHERE LATEST BUOY OBS HAVE REACHED 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL SAT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N/NW WATERS. N/NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT (UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL) DOES NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT...PREVENTING IT FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS SWD. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK N OF THE AREA BY MON. THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO REPEAT BY TUE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A COUPLE OF LOW PRES FEATURES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A SFC TROUGH...LIKELY THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC FRONT...IS APPROACHING 70W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY WINDS BEHIND THE AXIS. THE OTHER FEATURE IS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHALLOW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16.5N 85.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOW TOPPED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SFC OBS AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEAL 20-25 KT NE WINDS N OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND GOOD CURVATURE ABOUT THE LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF ITS PRESENCE AT THE SFC. THIS DATA ALSO SHOWS SIMILAR MAGNITUDE N/NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NE/E 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SW AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. BY TUE AND WED...HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA INCREASING TRADES AREA-WIDE. SW N ATLC... A NE-SW HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SET UP OVER THE N WATERS PROVIDING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS S OF 23N E OF 70W WHERE N/NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING TO THE W OF THE TAIL END OF A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE N WATERS SAT NIGHT AND MOVE S TO ALONG 29N/30N SUN. A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT/LOW TRACK N OF THE AREA ON MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE SUBTROPICS AND HOLDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. NE TO E 10-12 SEC WIND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY WAVE COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.