000 AGXX40 KNHC 220714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 207 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESS CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA IS SHIFTING E AND ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF W OF 93W WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY SPREADS OVER THE GULF AND INCREASES TO 20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI. SLY WINDS SLACKEN OFF A BIT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH A CONSENSUS FCST OF A FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY 00Z SUN. ZONAL/PARALLEL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE SUGGESTS FRONTAL ZONE IS MORE E-W ORIENTED AND MAKES ONLY MARGINAL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM FL PANHANDLE TO 27N97W BY 00Z MON THEN MOVES N OF THE AREA LATE MON. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 KT WITH THE INITIAL PASSAGE THEN DROP OFF TO 15 KT PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LIGHT E TO SE FLOW ENSUES MON. ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. LATEST QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL SUGGESTING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT. SINCE THAT TIME WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE AND STALL ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. NW WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE NE AND DECREASE WITH 8-11 FT SEAS STILL IN PLACE E OF 72W BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE PORTION OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS E-W ALONG 30N FRI AND 28N SAT AS OLD FRONTAL TROUGH STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA. AS PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE TIMING AND TRACK OF NEXT COLD FRONT STILL UNCERTAIN. IF THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE NWLY THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THE FRONT MAY EXTEND FURTHER SWD INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 30N/31N SUN WITH POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUN NEAR 31N78W. LOW MOVES EWD TO NEAR 31N75W WITH SOME NLY FLOW SPILLING NW OF THE FRONT DOWN THE FL EAST COAST MON. E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRESS GOVERNS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT TRADES NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATYPICAL FRONTAL STRUCTURE SNAKES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA THROUGH JAMAICA THEN TURNS SWD OFF THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 12N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS NWWD OFF THE FRONT AND BISECTS THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRONT MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES BY LATE FRI WITH A MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN ENSUING FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC MODERATE ELY FLOW WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELLS OF 10-12 FT REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME OF THE SWELLS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. NWLY SWELL FROM THE SW N ATLC MERGES WITH THE EXISTING AREA TONIGHT AND FRI REINFORCING THE PROPAGATION OF SWELLS THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES. MORE NORMAL TRADE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS TO NEAR 8-9 FT BY LATE SUN AND MON. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.