000
AGXX40 KNHC 211734
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EST WED JAN 21 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...THE NLY FLOW DIMINISHING FROM W TO E AND 
EXPECTED TO BE AT 15 KT MAX AROUND SUNSET TODAY. N SWELLS TO 8 
FT OVER THE SE WATERS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 6 FT EARLY 
THU. BY THEN...THE SLY RETURN OVER THE NW WATERS SUSTAINED AT 15 
KT AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO 20 KT AND SPREADING E TO ABOUT 92W 
LATE FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 15 KT AGAIN. MODELS STILL 
UNCERTAIN AGAIN ON NEXT FRONT...LATEST MODEL RUN NOW BRINGS 
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BUT NOT AS STRONG WITH THE 
NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT ONLY INCREASING TO ABOUT 15 KT. EXPECT 
SOME MORE FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS 
WELL.
        
ATLC...GALE WINDS SHIFTED N OF AREA. ALTHOUGH STILL EVIDENCE OF 
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM HAITI THE STRONG COLD 
FRONT WILL PROBABLY HAVE OVERRUN IT BY THE TIME I RELEASE THIS 
PRODUCT. THIS STRONG FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON THEN THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF 
THE FRONT COMES TO AN ABRUPT HALT LATE THU OVER THE WATERS NE OF 
PUERTO RICO. MODELS RUNS FLUCTUATING ON POSITION AND EASTWARD 
TRACK OF THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES CENTER...BUT STILL BELIEVE A 
RIDGE WILL BUILD E OFF THE FL COAST ALONG 28-29N WITH A HIGH 
CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 73W FRI NIGHT INTO 
SAT...THUS SETTING UP STRONGER SW FLOW TO THE E OF N FL. TIMING 
AND TRACK OF NEXT COLD FRONT VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT IT NOW LOOKS 
LIKE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N SUN WITH POSSIBLE LOW 
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT SUN NIGHT NEAR 30N78W. 
          
CARIBBEAN...A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE VISIBLE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. WILL FOCUS ON THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY MOVING 
THROUGH JAMAICA ATTM. NLY WINDS MOSTLY AT 15-20 KT W OF FRONT 
BUT A SMALL SWATCH OF 25 KT DEPICTED ON AN 11Z Q-SCAT PASS THIS 
MORNING...BUT SHIPS IN THE SAME AREA ALL SHOW 15 KT. SSMI DATA 
VERIFIES GRADIENT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA HAS RETURNED NE WINDS 
TO 20 KT. SEEMS THE E SWELLS TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THOUGH SAT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT 
LATE SUN INTO MON.

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.