000 AGXX40 KNHC 200654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF FT MYERS TO 24N91W IS SWEEPING RAPIDLY SE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS WHICH PEAKED AT JUST BELOW GALE FORCE SEVERAL HOURS AGO. WAS CONTEMPLATING A GALE BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE WITH THE STRONGEST CAA SLIDING NE OF THE AREA TODAY. SEAS PEAKED AT 13-14 FT AT BUOY 42036 ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN DEGREE OF CAA AND STRONG INSTABILITY. WINDS REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG TODAY THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MORE SO WED. HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT AND MOVES E OF THE AREA THU WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 90W THU AND SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO 20 KT OVER W PORTION. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TX COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/CMC/ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS/UKMET. PREFER THE TIMING OF THE FIRST SET OF MODELS AND GO WITH A MIDDAY ARRIVAL WITH FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 25N97W BY SAT EVENING. SW N ATLC... STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW EMERGING OFF THE NE FL COAST ALREADY RESULTING IN SW GALE FORCE WINDS WITH BUOY 41012 REPORTING SW WINDS OF 35 KT PAST HOUR AND BUOY 41010 PICKING UP TO NEAR 30 KT. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OF SIMPLIFYING THINGS AND RACE THIS BDRY EWD 31N74W TO FL STRAITS BY MIDDAY WITH WSW GALES OF 35-40 KT N OF 28N E AND W OF THE FRONT. GFS 30-M WINDS REACH 45 KT BRIEFLY MID DAY AND WILL MENTION HIGHER GUSTS. BY EVENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 23N80W WITH GALES MOVING N OF THE AREA. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15-20 FT LATER TODAY NRN SECTIONS IN LINE WITH MWW3. FRONT CONTINUES EWD AND WEAKENS FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE WED WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 9-14 FT W OF THE FRONT TO THE BAHAMAS AND E OF 76W. FRONT STALLS OVER SE PORTION THU WITH HIGH PRESS BUILDING OVER THE AREAS W OF 75W AND WINDS VEER TO THE NE AT 15-20 KT E OF 70W. HIGH PRESS DOMINATES FRI AND SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SFC TROUGH STILL EVIDENT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA. WINDS W OF TROUGH IN 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NOTED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF THE STRONG FRONT IN THE GULF. SEVERAL SHIPS NEAR THE CHANNEL HAVE REPORTED WLY WINDS OF 25 KT. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CHANNEL THIS EVENING WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT. FRONT CONTINUES SWD AND EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 11N80W BY LATE WED WITH NLY WINDS OF 20 KT IN ITS WAKE. FRONT DISSIPATES IN THE SAME AREA BY LATE THU AND FRI. LIGHT TRADES ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS SEEPING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC E WINDS OF 20 KT AND 9-12 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRI AND DECREASE SOMEWHAT SAT. ANOTHER BLAST OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVES OVER WATERS NE VIRGIN ISLANDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ATLANTIC... AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 28N. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.