000 AGXX40 KNHC 171815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING BUT NE FLOW STILL AT 20-25 KT OVER THE SE PART. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLOCK TO SW OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN PART EARLY TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT JUST AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT SLIPPING OFF TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE SUN. FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE E DISSECTING GULF FROM NW FL TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE SUNSET SUN WITH NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT W OF FRONT. S OF FRONT WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUBSIDING NE SWELLS. FRONT MOVES SE OF AREA AROUND SUNSET MON AS WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KT W OF 95W MON NIGHT...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS SECOND COLD SURGE ARRIVES NW GULF LATE MON NIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT REACHES YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED. WINDS W OF FRONT AT 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT BECOMING NE 15 KT WED. PATTERN REPEATS THU WITH SLY FLOW AT 15-20 KT NW WATERS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT ALONG TX COAST MIDDAY FRI. ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...THE STATIONARY FRONT A VERY BROAD BOUNDARY SO CHANGED WORDING TO FRONTAL TROUGH ON THIS MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT HIGH PRES OVER SE CONUS TO SHIFT E AND PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT TO THE SE DISCUSSION WATERS SUN. MODELS SEEM TO HOLD ONTO THE REMNANTS IN VICINITY OF SE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON...BUT THIS MAY PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH MON AND CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD W TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS TUE. IN ANY EVENT NE WINDS AND N SWELLS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME PROPAGATING THROUGH EXPOSED NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. N WINDS ALONG THE NE FL COAST WILL DIMINISH TODAY BECOMING S-SW TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY INCREASING SUN TO MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNRISE MON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. W OF FRONT WINDS EXPECTED IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT REMAIN WLY THROUGH WED FINALLY SHIFTING TO N WED NIGHT AND THEN TO NE THU AND SE TO S OFF NE FL COAST THU NIGHT. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 18 FT IN THE STRONG SLY FLOW JUST S OF BERMUDA WED. NE WINDS AT 20-25 KT W OF CARIBBEAN TROUGH THIS MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SUN...EXCEPT OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THEY PERSIST TO AROUND SUNSET SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT BUT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A BRIEF SURGE TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT AS IT CONTINUES E REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE WED NIGHT. TRADES E OF THE CARIBBEAN AT 20 KT WITH LARGE E SWELLS MIXING WITH THE NLY SWELLS THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... NONE. AMZ080...MINIMUM GALE EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF FRONT MON. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.