000 AGXX40 KNHC 081944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST THU JAN 08 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. BROAD N AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT OFF THE E COAST OF U.S. THEN THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS...ACROSS WRN CUBA AND TO NEAR COZUMEL MEXICO. WEAK RETURN SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE EXTREME W AND SW GULF AS WEAK HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTER GULF...AND SEAS GULFWIDE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5 FT AND LESS. A NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF COAST BY 12Z SAT...WITH 20 KT SLY FLOW TO OCCUR 12 TO 18 HOUR IN ADVANCE ACROSS THE FAR S AND NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. SEAS ACROSS EXTREME NW GULF WILL BUILD 5 TO 6 FT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS SUGGEST ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...AS UPPER SUPPORT DRIVES THE FRONT INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS LIKELY. GALE FORCE WINDS AND 10-12 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WRN GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS THIS FRONT SINKS S SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLC HAS SHIFTED E OF 75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE AN ESE MOTION THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SW PORTIONS NEAR THE BAHAMAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. SWLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 28N ATTM...AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OR NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 18 HOURS. ECMWF AND UKMET CURRENTLY FORECAST MAX WINDS AT 30 KT ACROSS THIS POTENTIAL GALE AREA...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS FORECAST 30-40 KT. AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO REMAIN WITH THE GALE FORECAST. SEAS THERE CURRENTLY 8 TO 12 FT WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15 FT. BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES...W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN WIND SWELL. WINDS HERE WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR THESE INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT AND HIGHER BY 00Z AS FAR S AS THE NW BAHAMAS EASTWARD ALONG 26N. THIS NW SWELL IS FORECAST BY WWIII TO REACH THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SATURDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG ABOUT 30N EXTENDING WSW TO THE SE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE PERIOD WIND SWELL MIXING WITH FADING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 22N. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THE TRADES HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE WRN ATLC AND WEAKENED THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MUCH SMALLER ZONE OF 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM YESTERDAY...NOW CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIB ROUGHLY BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 8 ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB...INCREASING DOWNWIND TO 8 TO 9 FT OFFSHORE OF THE COLUMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH 36 HOURS...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIB SAT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGHER ZONE...S OF 15N AND BETWEEN 81W AND 72W...WITH SEAS BUILDING THERE 9 TO 12 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.