000 AGXX40 KNHC 080309 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1010 PM EST WED JAN 07 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...UPDATE... MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS AFTER THE NEXT FRONT PASSAGE LATE SAT AND EARLY SUN. HAVE UPDATED THE SW ZONE TO INDICATE THIS EXPECTATION...WITH PEAK WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT FORECAST ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR FT MYERS TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF VERACRUZ. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOSTLY THE NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL AND LARGELY DISSIPATE. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY OVER THE NW WATERS HOWEVER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY STARTING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ACROSS THE GULF AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SAT. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS THE PROBABILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN CARIBBEAN...ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM E CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF FRONT AIDING IN ENHANCING TRADES ACROSS MOST OF CARIBBEAN TODAY...WITH MORNING QUIKSCAT PASSES SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS FROM OFF THE LEEWARD COASTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO LIKELY S OF JAMAICA...WHERE WINDS BACK MORE NE. WINDS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...AND FLOW N OF THE NE CARIB VEER SE TO S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ACT TO RELAX THE GRADIENT AND BRIEFLY BRING DOWN WAVE HEIGHTS BASIN WIDE. GFS FORECASTS 20-25 KT FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL CARIB S OF 15N THROUGH 48 HOURS. SW N ATLC...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF OF HATTERAS AND EXTENDED SW TO S OF CAPE CANAVERAL AT 19Z...MOVING E SE...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N NOW THROUGH 30-36 HOURS. DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL ISOLATED POCKETS OF 40 KT SURFACE FLOW...WITH SEAS IN THIS REGION BUILDING FORECAST TO BUILD 10-15 FT IN MIXED SWLY WIND WAVES AND MODERATE PERIOD NW SWELL. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 65W BY 36 HOURS...WITH WIND AND SEAS SUBSIDING 6 TO 12 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 30N. SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...AND W TO NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH SWELL ENERGY TO BE GENERATED THAT WOULD PROPAGATE INTO THIS SW N ATLC ZONE...AND THUS SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY MODERATE PERIOD WIND SWELL IN 8 TO 10 SECOND RANGE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES E SE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION N OF 26N. E OF THE ISLANDS...E TO ENE WIND SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH FADING NW SWELL TO MAINTAIN SEAS 8 TO 9 FT AND HIGHER. NWLY SWELL WILL HAVE FADED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THU...LEAVING SEAS TO BE DOMINATED BY TRADE WIND SWELL. E CENTRAL ATLC HIGH TO MEANDER ALONG 30N THROUGH 72 HOURS. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.