000 AGXX40 KNHC 051907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EST MON JAN 05 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N96W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR TAMPICO. SFC LOW MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A FRONTAL WAVE FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD AND INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TUE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES N OF THE AREA IT INTENSIFIES AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED AND E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS W TO NW WINDS TO PICK UP TO 25-30 KT OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF N OF 27N WED AFTN. WINDS RAPIDLY DROP OFF OVER THE GULF WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. HIGH REMAINS INTACT THU AND FRI WITH SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER AREAS W OF 90W LATE FRI INTO SAT. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT. MODELS DIFFER STRONGLY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AM LEANING TWD THE GFS ENSEMBLES FOR NOW. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE ALONG 29N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 75W S OF 28N. RIDGE YIELDS ON TUE WITH SW WINDS INCREASING LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. STILL ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE N OF 29N WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST WED AFTN. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THU AND FROM 26N65W TO E CUBA BY EARLY FRI. S TO SW GALES CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT EARLY THU WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND NW AT 20 TO LOCALLY 30 KT W OF THE FRONT INTO THU. A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI ALLOWS NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT...POSSIBLY GALE FORCE N OF 29N E OF 70W. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING A HIGH PROB OF GALES IN THE AREA AS WELL. THUS WILL INCLUDE GALES EXPECTED FRI. LONG FETCH OF GALES PRODUCES SEAS OF UP TO 20 FT ON FRI. HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SAT WITH WINDS DECREASING BUT SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED POSSIBLY UP TO 15 FT MAINLY E OF 70W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TYPICAL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NWW3 MODEL IS INDICATING SEAS OF 10-11 FT OVER THE E PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WHERE BUOYS 41101 AND 41100 ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THESE FRENCH BUOYS MAY HAVE A LOW BIAS. CORRESPONDING NDBC BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 9-10 FT. IN ANY EVENT THE NWW3 IS ABOUT 1-2 FT TOO HIGH. TRADES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST EXCEPT FAR NW PORTION WHERE WINDS DROP OFF AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC... AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND THU N OF 29N E OF FRONT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI N OF 29N E OF 70W. CARIBBEAN... NONE GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.