000 AGXX40 KNHC 311948 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DEPICT A COLD FRONT PUSHING SSE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WSW TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI CHRISTI. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE MARKED WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS FROM THE NE AT 20-25 KT W OF 92W AND NW-N WINDS OF 15 KT ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE-E 5-10 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF...BUT ABOUT 2 FT UNDONE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION AS SHOWN BY BUOY REPORTED SEA HEIGHT VALUES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR SE GULF TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI THU AND TO ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ON FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N QUICKLY SLIDES E TO OFFSHORE THE SE CAROLINA COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS RETURN FLOW IN THE FORM OF SLY 10-15 KT WINDS TAKE FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT W OF ABOUT 94W WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT...INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO...MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND E TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF WHEN FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. BOTH THE 12 UTC GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT INTO THE GULF SUN NIGHT...WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS ARE HAVE A SLOWER SOLN SHOWING THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS BY TUE. THIS APPEARS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE GFS AND UKMET DON'T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE GULF UNTIL A LOW OR FRONTAL WAVE FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BEGINNING MON. THE OTHER MODELS APPEAR SLOWER WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THEY PROG THE ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING INLAND N OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE LATEST GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE RESEMBLES THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HANGING UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/SW LOUISIANA COAST MON THEN PUSHING OFF THE COAST TUE MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS OFF THE TEXAS COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER MODEL SOLNS FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT WILL MENTION A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OF 20-25 KT FOR LATE MON...BUT WILL POSSIBLY HAVE TO PUSH THIS BACK FURTHER IF NEW GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE COMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS IN TIMING OF THE THIS FRONT INTO THE GULF NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL RETREAT E SUN AND MON. SW N ATLC... WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB CENTERED E OF THE AREA NEAR 26N61W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA FROM 31N77W SW TO SE GEORGIA WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SE WATERS FRI AND SAT. BEHIND THE FRONT NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH HIGH GUSTS ALONG ALONG AND N OF 30N WILL QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES ESE AND WEAKENS. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT ARE BEING OBSERVED E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT SE OF THE AREA AND DIMINISH TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATER ALONG 31N FRI NIGHT. THE 1200 UTC RUN OF THE NAM IS SLOW WITH THIS SOLN KEEPING FRONT STILL N OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AS DEDUCED FROM MODEL GUIDANCE WILL BE SW 15-20 KT FRI NIGHT AND SAT N OF 30N ...THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS FRONT QUICKLY PULLS E OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST MON MON MORNING INCREASING SW WINDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SWELL TRAIN THAT WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PROPAGATING WELL S AND SE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS THU AND FRI WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE RANGE OF 10-15 FT IN THE FAR NE SECTION PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SWELLS ONLY SUBSIDE TO 9-12 FT OVER THE FAR E WATERS ON SAT. SEAS SUBSIDE LATE SAT THROUGH MON OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 10 FT AS REVEALED IN THE 1200 UTC SEA STATE ANALYSIS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 6-9 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N AND 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE WHERE WINDS ARE NE 10-15 KT. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE THROUGH WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE OVER MUCH OF CARIBBEAN INTO FRI. ATLC FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THESE WATERS. WINDS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AREA AS GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE TIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS INTO FRI...THEN PERHAPS INCREASES OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE SAT AND SUN AS PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL PROTRUDE SW TO JUST N OF THESE WATERS SAT THROUGH MON. SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...BUT WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS AN E SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF 8-11 FT SEAS AFFECTS THOSE WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SUBSIDES SOME ON FRI BEFORE THE ATLC SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES FROM THE N ON SAT AND MIXES WITH ANOTHER E SWELL TRAIN OF 8-12 FT SEAS LATE SAT AND SUN...AND SUBSIDES SLIGHTLY MON. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.