000 AGXX40 KNHC 301936 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 1800 UTC SHOWS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA W TO 26N90W TO 26N95W...THEN DROPS S INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT N OF THE FRONT...AND NE-E WINDS OF 10 KT S OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF WHERE WINDS ARE MAINLY E-SE 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING LOOKS VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THESE SEAS. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1200 UTC THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW SWATH OF NW 20 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 10 KT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHIFTS SE TO NEAR THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ON WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THEN REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA W TO 25N90W TO NE MEXICO BY LATE WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED THROUGH THU AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS WARM FRONT ON THU AS A THIRD COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI...AND QUICKLY REACHES THE NE GULF BY SAT EXTENDING W INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT NW TO NE TEXAS INTO SUN. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC SHOWS MOSTLY N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT THAT LASTS INTO WED NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THEY SWING AROUND MORE TO THE NE AND E AS HIGH PRES TO THE N SLIDES. THESE WINDS THEN VEER TO E-SE THU AND WEAKEN...BUT BECOME S-SW ABOUT 10-15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF FRI AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT SAT BEFORE DECREASING SUN AGAIN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD MAX OUT AT ABOUT 7 FT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SEAS 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SUN AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC RIDGE ALONG 29N RETREATS E. IT IS TOO SOON TO STATE ANYTHING WITH RESPECT TO HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE AS IT NEARS THE TEXAS COAST LATE ON SUN. SW N ATLC... WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB CENTERED E OF THE AREA NEAR 25N62W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA FROM 31N68W TO S FLORIDA WILL PULL E OF THE AREA TONIGHT E OF 70W WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NE OF 27N AND 74W WHILE THE SEGMENT W OF 70W GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IDENTITY THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NW 15-20 KT E OF 71W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT IN N SWELL. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 71W HAVE BECOME N-NE 10-15 KT BASED ON BUOY REPORTS...AND CONFIRMED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PASSED 1030 UTC THIS MORNING. THE NW 15-20 KT WINDS WILL MOVE E OF AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NE PART WED BEFORE SHIFTING E OF AREA WED NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE LATEST MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NW WATERS WED MORNING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT AS DEDUCED FROM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WITH THIS FRONT. E OF THE THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SW-W 20-25 KT WED AND WED NIGHT...W OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW-N 20-25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT...BECOMING N-NE ON THU BEFORE VEERING TO NE-E AND DECREASING TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SWELL TRAIN THAT WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PROPAGATING WELL S AND SE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS THU AND FRI WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE RANGE OF 12-18 FT IN THE FAR NE SECTION PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THE FRONT THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SE WATERS LATE THU AND EXITS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE ...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION BUT SLIDES E ON FRI ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME MOSTLY SLY IN RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI NIGHT. SWELLS ONLY SUBSIDE TO 9-12 FT OVER THE FAR E WATERS ON SAT AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES TO ALONG A LINE FROM 31N66W TO SE BAHAMAS BY EARLY SAT EVENING. THIS TENTATIVELY APPEARS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE A QUICK EVENT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. WINDS RELATED TO THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BEHIND IT AND TO ITS EAST N OF ABOUT 28N. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY ON SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SEAS WITH THIS FRONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS NOTED WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1030 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 71W-78W. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S QUIKSCAT DATA...THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE. MAX SEA HEIGHTS HAVE SUBSIDED SOME AS WELL IN THIS AREA AS REVEALED IN THE 1200 UTC SEA STATE ANALYSIS WHICH INDICATED A MAX OF 11 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 6-9 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N AND 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE WHERE WINDS ARE NE 10-15 KT. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE THROUGH WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE OVER MUCH OF CARIBBEAN INTO FRI. ATLC FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THESE WATERS. WINDS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AREA AS GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE TIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS INTO FRI...THEN PERHAPS INCREASES OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE SAT AND SUN AS PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL PROTRUDE SW TO JUST N OF THESE WATERS SAT AND SUN. SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...BUT WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS AN E SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF 8-11 FT SEAS AFFECTS THOSE WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SUBSIDES SOME ON FRI BEFORE THE ATLC SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES FROM THE N ON SAT AND MIXES WITH ANOTHER E SWELL TRAIN OF 8-12 FT SEAS LATE SAT AND SUN. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.