000 AGXX40 KNHC 291943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST MON DEC 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 1500 UTC DEPICTS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO 26N90W TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AT 24N95W...THEN DROPS S INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS MOVING SE ABOUT 5-10 KT. CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF NW 20-25 KT CONFINED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND MEXICO S OF 25N. SEAS IN THOSE AREAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE. N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER A SMALL AREA IN THE SW PART OF THE NW GULF ZONE. TO THE SE WINDS ARE LIGHT MAINLY E-SE IN DIRECTION WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE 5-10 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REACH FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL FORM ALONG 30N TUE THEN SHIFT TO ALONG 26N E OF ABOUT 90W ON WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS EARLY WED MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 25N BY WED NIGHT...AND DRIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON THU IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL REACH FROM NE FL TO NEAR 27N88W ON FRI...AND FROM S FL TO NEAR NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON SAT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF AREA LATE ON SAT. BEHIND THE FRONT N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS BRIEFLY REACHING 20-25 KT ON WED. WINDS THEN VEER TO E-SE AT 15-20 KT THU AND TO S-SW FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD MAX OUT AT 6 OR 7 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WED NIGHT. SW N ATLC... HIGH CENTER OF 1024 MB NEAR 30N64W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO S FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY TOWARDS THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH A LINE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS TUE MORNING...WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO S CENTRAL FL. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF ABOUT 27N QUICKLY PUSHES E OF AREA WED NIGHT SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING EASTWARD TO JUST N OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE IN THE NW WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS HIGH THEN SHIFTS E TO NEAR 28N70W AND WEAKENS ON WED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NW WATERS ON WED. AS FAR AS RELATED WINDS WITH THE FRONT...WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM MODEL INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL BE OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WITH THIS FRONT. E OF THE THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SW-W 20-25 KT WED AND WED NIGHT...W OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE W-NW 20-25 KT WED...AND N 20-25 KT THU BEFORE VEERING TO NE-E 15-20 KT LATE THU NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SWELL TRAIN THAT PROPAGATES WELL S AND SE INTO THE WATERS THU AND FRI WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE RANGE OF 12-17 FT IN THE NE SECTION PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THE FRONT THE QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SE WATERS LATE THU AND EXITS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION BUT SLIDES E ON FRI ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME MOSTLY SLY IN RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON SAT. SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 9-10 FT OVER THE FAR E WATERS ON SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1100 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED A VAST AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORTED SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 1200 UTC SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED MAX SEAS OF 13 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS WAS BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE WINDS ARE NE-E 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THESE AREAS INTO THU. WINDS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AREA AS GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE TIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS INTO FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...BUT WILL AN ISSUE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS AN E SWELL TRAIN OF 8-11 FT SEAS AFFECTS THOSE WATERS. FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THESE WATERS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.