000 AGXX40 KNHC 261900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED THROUGH SAT NIGHT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE 1040 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS ABOVE GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS ABOVE GALE FORCE FROM 11N TO 14N SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OVER PRES FROM PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC AND HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY SUN. NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT WINDS ARE STRONG AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE GALE WARNING...BUT GIVEN THE TREND IN THE FORECAST TOWARD WEAKER HIGH PRES TO THE N FROM SUN ONWARD...BROUGHT THE WINDS BELOW GALE ON SUN. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS STILL ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER TX SUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE IDEA OF NOT CARRYING GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL OR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GALES HERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO N WATERS WED. ATLC... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST N OF FORECAST WATERS IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH INTO N WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 30N73W DISSIPATES. HI PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE MEAN RIDGE GOING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC UNTIL MON/TUE WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO NW WATERS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH THE GFS AGAIN ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...SO SUGGEST SLOWING ITS SOLUTION DOWN A BIT. ONE MORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW WATERS AT THE END OF THE PD...WITH THE MODELS IN TWO CAMPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SLOW END AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER. FOR NOW...WILL STICK TO THE MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...AMZ084 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.