000 AGXX40 KNHC 251856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE GULF OF MEXICO... BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD IS WHETHER TO HOIST GALES FOR THE WESTERN GULF AND...IF SO...FOR WHAT SPECIFIC TIME FRAME ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT EVEN HITS THE GULF...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST MODEL AND CARRYING A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRES SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE NOGAPS AND UKMET. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND HI RESOLUTION GFS NEVER SHOW THE WIND SPEED ABOVE 25 KT AND THE 1200 UTC NCEP ENSEMBLES DO NOT EVEN APPROACH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS EVIDENCE...WILL HOLD WINDS TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT A SIMILAR PATTERN LAST WEEK PRODUCED WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT. THIS SITUATION CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ECMWF FRONTAL TIMING WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS AND S OF 26N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY ONLY TO BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER POTENT HIGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST LATE TOMORROW/EARLY SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FAR N WATERS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS. AS THE SECOND HIGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO N WATERS ON SUN/MON...IT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH EASTERLY FLOW DIMINISHING AS WELL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS MON. AS STATED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...IS PREFERRED. OTHERWISE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN OVER FORECAST WATERS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.