000 AGXX40 KNHC 221847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND DISSIPATION OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE HIGH OFF THE E COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CARRYING IT JUST N OF THE AREA TO E OF 60W BY WED EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR N WATERS FRI. THERE ARE SOME VERY SLIGHT TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT...BUT FOR A FORECAST SO FAR OUT...THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS COLD FRONT. DID NOT SEE A GOOD REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS AND ITS WAVE WATCH SOLUTION. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230 UTC REVEALED A REGION OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND HIGHER...SOME OF WHICH WAS RAIN FLAGGED...BETWEEN 22N AND 25N W OF 96W. THE MODELS ARE SEVERELY UNDER FORECASTING THIS EVENT...WITH EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS AND 20 KM NAM BARELY SHOWING WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE. THEIR FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT FOR THE GALE WARNING. WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST..EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING...THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS WILL TRIGGER DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...INCLUDING THE WESTERN GULF. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON HOLDING ONTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT AND THEN SEND THAT SYSTEM NORTHWARD...ALLOWING IT TO MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ON TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL ONLY GRAZE THE NW WATERS WED AND THU BEFORE DISSIPATING N OF THE AREA FRI. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 96W...GMZ082 FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.