000
AGXX40 KNHC 190740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND 
PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS 
INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR 
SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON 
THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML

LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD LIES IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUN. LOW RES GFS BRINGS WINDS TO 
30 KT...BUT WITH THE HIGHER RES VERSION KICKING THE WINDS INTO 
GALE FORCE ALONG WITH THE 20 KM NAM...THE FORECAST WILL NOW 
INTRODUCE POSSIBLE GALES AROUND SUN EVENING...JUST OUTSIDE THE 
WARNING PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS THE ECMWF 
AND UKMET HOLD WINDS AT 30 KT.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD 
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WATERS N OF 25N E OF 60W BY 
EARLY SAT MORNING.  THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS 
COLD FRONT SHOULD PULL NORTH EARLY SAT.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND 
UKMET DEVELOP A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW BY SAT AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS 
ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT 
RAPIDLY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...BELIEVE THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS HAVE AN 
EDGE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
THROUGH SUN.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT OR 8 
FT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO 
YIELD GALES IN THE GULF LATE SUN/MON SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE.


ATLANTIC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.