000 AGXX40 KNHC 170748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO 23N98W...N OF TAMPICO MEXICO. NLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 10 KT. THE FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE STEADILY INLAND...POSSIBLY JUMP INLAND WITH DAYTIME MIXING LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INLAND SE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE GULF W OF 95W SAT AND EARLY SUN. MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY SUN. THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE THE FASTEST WHILE THE NOGAPS IS THE SLOWEST. THE GFS/CMC MODELS FOR NOW OFFER A COMPROMISE POSITION WHICH IS FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO 24N97W BY LATE SUN. IN ADDITION THE GFS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT FRONT GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS WILL ONCE GAIN BE A FACTOR FOR SUN AS WELL WITH 25-30 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT. TOO EARLY AT THIS STAGE TO CALL BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GALES NW OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE AIRMASS. THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC... LOW PRES E OF THE AREA NEAR 26N58W 1008 MB WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR 20N60W. THE AREA OF LOW PRES HAS BECOME LESS ELONGATED IN NATURE OVER TIME. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 420 NM IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND E OF 60W AS INDICATED BY A 2224 UTC HIGH RES QSCAT PASS. THE BROAD LOW PRES IS FCST TO MOVE WSW TO NEAR 25N62W THIS EVENING AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EARLY THU OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE ZONE. THE AREA OF GALES MOVES WWD WITH THE LOW TODAY BUT COVERING A MUCH SMALLER AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...GENERALLY N OF 25N E OF 67W. THESE GALES SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TODAY. MORE NLY TRAJECTORY AND FOCUS OF THE WINDS W OF THE LOW WILL DRIVE N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT PRIMARILY E OF 70W AND 10-11 FT SEAS WITH 11-12 SEC PERIODS INTO THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES TODAY AND IN TO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING. AREA OF WINDS BEGINS TO SHRINK THU AND DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING SEAS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA SAT EVENING AND COVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE AREA SUN. IN THE MEANTIME SW WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND REACH 20-25 KT BY LATE SUN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... A COMBINATION OF 2228 AND 0008 UTC HI RES QSCAT PASSES INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W WITH ENHANCED FUNNELING IN THE MONA PASSAGE UNDERWAY. THE FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAVE BACK TO THE N/NW AND WEAKENED AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS N OF THE ZONE. WINDS OVER ALL AREAS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU AS THE WEAKENED AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE NE. WINDS DECREASE ALL AREAS FRI AND SAT AS THE LOW PRES WILL HAVE OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES ALL AREAS SUN WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC... AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY N OF 25N E OF 67W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.