000 AGXX40 KNHC 150750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 AM EST MON DEC 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE GULF OF MEXICO... AREA OF E TO SE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND NOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AS CONFIRMED BY A 0058 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS. WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN ADVANCE OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TEXARKANA TO SAN ANTONIO TEXAS. ALL THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW RESOLUTION NOGAPS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO A PORTION OF THE NW GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND STALLING THE FRONT FROM S-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE EARLY TUE BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NWD LATE TUE. NATURE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS ARGUES FOR AN INITIAL SURGE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SETTLE DOWN TO 15 KT OR SO. SLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN WED AND INCREASES WED NIGHT/THU W OF 90W BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN FRI. THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 25N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A SPRAWLING 1039-40 MB HIGH PRESS NEAR 37N68W HAS RESULTED IN NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT PER A RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS AND SHIP OBS IN THE AREA. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 9 TO 14 FT MOST AREAS E OF 80W AND N OF THE FRONT AS VERIFIED BY A RECENT JASON ALTIMETER PASS AND SHIP DATA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES WELL E OF THE ZONE UNTIL LATE TUE NEAR 26N59W. A 2136 UTC HIGH RES QSCAT AND SUBSEQUENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAS ALREADY COMMENCED N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 60W...WELL E OF THE ZONE. THE LOW PRES IS FCST TO MOVE WSW TO NEAR 23N60W BY LATE WED AND ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE ZONE THU WHILE WEAKENING AND OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH LATE THU NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE AREA OF GALES MOVES WWD WITH THE LOW ON WED AND GIVEN THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A GRADIENT STORM WILL BRING GALES INTO THE E PORTIONS OF THE ZONE ON WED. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW EVOLVES. IN ANY EVENT THE LOW RESULTS IN A CHANGE IN THE TRAJECTORY AND FOCUS OF THE WINDS ON TUE AND WED WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRIMARILY E OF 70W. THIS TRAJECTORY OF WINDS AND SWELLS MAY PUSH 11-12 FT SEAS WITH 11-12 SEC PERIODS INTO THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES BOTH DAYS. AREA OF WINDS BEGINS TO SHRINK THU AND DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY LATE FRI. AS INDICATED IN THE PAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...THE AREA OF LOW PRESS MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... BROAD AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 67W AS INDICATED BY THE 2320 UTC HI RES QSCAT PASS. THIS SAME PASS ALSO INDICATED FRESH NE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FUNNEL INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUE AND WED AS THE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO FILTER INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE THEN BACK TO THE NW AND WEAKEN LATE TUE AND WED AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE ZONE. WINDS OVER ALL AREAS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU AS THE WEAKENED AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE NE. WINDS DECREASE ALL AREAS FRI AS THE LOW PRES WILL HAVE OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC... AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED FROM 24N TO 30N E OF 68W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.