000 AGXX40 KNHC 140718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD AREA OF E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS IN PROGRESS OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE CONFIRMED BY RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN DECREASE OVER THE WRN GULF MON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ALL NWP MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN EXPANSIVE 5H RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF TUE AND WED. AT THE SURFACE...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH THE GFS/NAM/UKMET BRIEFLY SLIDING THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT/TUE BEFORE IT RETREATS NWD OVER TEXAS ON WED. THE NOGAPS/UKMET MODELS NEVER BRING THE FRONT INTO THE GULF WHILE THE CMC SOLUTION LIES BETWEEN THE 2 MODEL CAMPS. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE NW GULF THEN RETREAT NWD WED. NLY WINDS MAY REACH 15-20 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SE TO S RETURN FLOW ENSUES LATER WED INTO THU. THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC... MERGED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE VEERED TO THE NE AND ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT PER A RECENT QSCAT PASS. HIGH PRESS CURRENTLY OFF THE MID ATLC COAST STRENGTHENS OVER THE NW ATLC AND ALLOWS LARGE AREA OF NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY THROUGH MON N OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE BUILD TO 9-14 FT THIS EVENING AND TO 10-16 FT BY MON. LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP WELL E OF THE ZONE LATE MON NEAR 26N54W WITH AN AREA OF GALES E OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND STRONG HIGH TO THE N. THE LOW IS FCST TO MOVE WSW TO NEAR 23N60W BY LATE TUE AND ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE ZONE BY THU. THE AREA OF GALES MOVES WWD WITH THE LOW ON WED..THEN DECREASE ON THU. THE GALES REMAIN E OF THE ZONE FOR NOW WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE. IN ANY EVENT THE LOW RESULTS IN A CHANGE IN THE TRAJECTORY AND FOCUS OF THE WINDS ON TUE AND WED WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRIMARILY E OF 70W. THIS TRAJECTORY OF WINDS AND SWELLS MAY PUSH 11-12 FT SEAS WITH 11-12 SEC PERIODS INTO THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES BOTH DAYS. AS A FINAL NOTE THE AREA OF LOW PRESS MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 11N82W. BROAD AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 71W. BY MON FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEGIN TO FUNNEL INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUE AND WED AS THE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO FILTER INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE THEN BACK TO THE NW AND WEAKEN LATE TUE AND WED AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE ZONE. WINDS OVER ALL AREAS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU AS THE WEAKENED AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE NE. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.